Region Focus: North America | 35


CHALLENGE FOR US SOFTWOODS


US softwood output remains constrained by a tough housing market, but opportunities are seen in mass timber and high-end exports to Europe,says American Softwoods


US softwood lumber production has remained broadly flat over the past year, reflecting weaker residential construction demand rather than limited sawmill capacity. Sawmill output was largely unchanged through the third quarter of 2025, while utilisation rates at sawmills and wood preservation facilities stayed near 70%, indicating a demand-constrained market. The industry continues to face structural constraints including labour shortages. Employment in sawmills and wood preservation fell to its lowest level since 2013, limiting the sector’s ability to expand output. US Forest Service softwood timber harvests are only a fraction of historic norms. Although the administration aims to increase them by 25% by 2028, analysis suggests the impact on supply will be limited. The US South is seeing growth due to abundant private timber supply, competitive log costs, modern sawmill infrastructure, and export access. Western US production remains consistent with strong demand impacting Douglas Fir and Hem-Fir markets. Overall, the market remains stable to modestly improving, with forecasts pointing to US softwood lumber production of around 37 BBF in 2025, with another modest increase expected in 2026.


In 2025, the value of US softwood lumber exports fell around 8% to US$664m, with exports to Canada reducing the most. Southern Yellow Pine is now the largest species in the US export mix, followed by Douglas Fir and Lodgepole Pine. Exports to the UK and wider European


market have developed gradually, although they remain modest compared with traditional Asian destinations. However, opportunities have expanded in higher-value and specialist segments including treated Southern Yellow Pine, industrial packaging timber, appearance-grade products, and engineered wood applications.


US lumber exports to the UK increased by around 30% in 2025. Demand is driven by residential construction, modular housing, infrastructure investment, and increased interest in sustainable building materials. This has created niche opportunities for


US softwoods where buyers value supply diversification, sustainability credentials, and treated wood performance.


Export patterns have also been shaped by trade disputes and supply-chain diversification away from China. Producers have expanded into India and Pakistan and tightening Canadian supply and tariff uncertainty have encouraged exporters to target markets such as Algeria, Turkey, and North Africa. American Softwoods’ maintains an active programme of international trade show participation and in 2025 Algeria Wood was added. The Algerian market is seeing growth in construction and investment into lumber production facilities.


And for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Carrefour International du Bois and Dubai Wood remain important events. Alongside it runs media campaigns and maintains membership of key European trade bodies. North American softwood capacity declined slightly from 74 to 73 billion board feet in 2025, reflecting strategic rationalisation. Well-capitalised producers continue investing in modern capacity while higher-cost operations exit the market. Key investment themes include mill modernisation and automation, AI-driven scanning and recovery optimisation, kiln and


planer upgrades, development of engineered wood products such as glulam and CLT, and value-added remanufacturing.


The longer-term outlook for use of mass timber in American construction remains positive. CLT, glulam, LVL, and hybrid wood- steel systems are increasingly being specified for mid-rise, commercial, and institutional projects. Building code changes have accelerated adoption and the 2027 I-Codes are expected to widen market scope further. Thermal modification of wood is also emerging as a significant value-added opportunity, particularly for exterior cladding, decking, and flooring, targeting domestic and export markets including the UK and Europe. Softwood lumber pricing has remained volatile, species-specific, and highly sensitive to tariff announcements and housing data. Benchmark framing lumber traded in the US$500–600/MBF range in early 2026, below pandemic-era peaks but still above pre-pandemic norms. Forecasts suggest the Composite Index could rise by 6–8% by the end of 2026 as supply curtailments outpace the modest recovery in demand. During 2025, the US Commerce Department increased duties on Canadian lumber from 14.5% to 35%. A further 10% Section 232 tariff introduced in October 2025 pushed the combined duty burden on many Canadian producers above 45%. For domestic producers, particularly in the US South, tariffs have created benefits, reducing Canadian competitiveness, supporting prices, and accelerating Canadian investment in US mills. However, several Southern Yellow Pine mills still face weak market conditions and pricing pressure. North American lumber consumption is forecast to grow by 0.4% in 2026 before strengthening to around 2.8% in 2027 as the US economy improves and housing affordability gradually recovers.


American Softwoods at India Wood


Prices are expected to continue recovering through 2026, driven by sawmill curtailments and tariff-related constraints on Canadian imports. A more meaningful recovery is expected in 2027 as consumption strengthens so the long-term outlook for US softwood remains favourable.


www.ttjonline.com | Summer 2026 | TTJ


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