News & numbers
“The main growth drivers in 2023 will be fully electric vehicles and models from the high-end premium segment.”
Pieter Nota, member of the Board of Management of BMW How low will US feedlot inventories go?
October 2014 was the previous low point in the feedlot inventory after drought drove the industry to liquidate the herd in 2011–13. Today’s beef cow herd in the US is a little smaller than it was in 2014 and is likely to shrink further in 2023. It’s realistic to predict the average feedlot inventories will drop near 2014’s low of 10.375 million head, with potential to drop even lower during the year. Attempting to predict when the herd low point will come only complicates the matter.
Drought conditions are expected to ease this year but are still present, and it’s uncertain whether liquidation will intensify. The smallest calf crop will be in 2024 at the earliest. Feedlot inventories will continue to trend lower, not hitting their low point until 2024 or later.
Another issue is how long the market will experience low feedlot inventories. Since the low point in 2014, average feedlot inventories rose through autumn 2017, lasting into 2018
Brazil’s hide and skin exports decline
Brazil’s February exports of hides and skins totalled $75.4m in value. This is down by more than 23.9% from the previous month and is 31.3% lower than the same month last year. In terms of square meters, 10.7 million were exported in February, down by 26.2% from January and 7.3% compared to February last year.
During the first two months of the year, exports totalled $174.6m, 17.5% less than in the same period of 2022. In terms of square metres, however, it was 6.6% higher. In the first two months of the year, China remains
the top buyer of Brazilian hides and skins, with the US ranking second and Italy in the third spot. All three of the main buyers of Brazilian leather purchased less in February. Salted skins continue to see strong increases in shipments, now more than tripling in value and almost quadrupling in volume. With regard to China, economic activity grew significantly in January and February. This indicates buyers in the country may resume purchasing soon, with positive effects on the leather industry and on domestic exports in the sector.
Brazil’s footwear exports to EU offset drops in other markets
Brazil’s January footwear exports totalled 14.63 million pairs with a value of $117.9m. Volume and value each saw increases of 4.5% and 16.6% respectively when compared with January last year. According to data prepared by the Brazilian Association of Footwear Industries (Abicalçados), an increase in exports to the EU more than offset declines logged for sale to the US and Argentina, which are historically the two main destinations for Brazilian footwear. “The deceleration of inflation in the region tends to gradually benefit the consumption of non-essential goods, such as shoes,” said Abicalçados chief executive Haroldo Ferreira. Exports to the EU were up by 29.0% in revenue and 27.9% in volume. Ferreira notes
Leather International /
www.leathermag.com
that the IMF revised upward the eurozone GDP growth projection, which should vary by 0.7% in 2023, compared with the earlier forecast of 0.5%.
The US remains the main destination for Brazilian footwear. In January, 1.26 million pairs were shipped there for $23.4m, lower both in volume (28%) and revenue (9.5%) than in January 2022. That month, Bolivia overtook Argentina as the second destination in demand for Brazilian footwear, purchasing 735,600 pairs for $12.8m. This is 5.5% lower in volume but a 92.3% increase in revenue compared with January 2022. Argentina was third with two million pairs valued at $6.9m, an increase of 147.6% in volume and 137.8% in revenue in relation to last January.
and 2019. For about three years, relatively low inventories in feedlots persisted during herd rebuilding. Heifer retention was high and replacement heifer inventories peaked in 2016 and 2017.
Comparing the next few years to the 2012–17 period is helpful when considering feedlot inventories. Current female inventories are even smaller. It’s likely feedlot inventories will decline to 2014’s low point and remain low for at least four years.
China’s leather exports up by
almost 20% China’s exports were up by nearly 20% in 2022 while imports were down, according to Chen Zhanguang, chairman of the China Leather Industry association. Chen presented the statistics at a press conference at APLF in Dubai. China’s leather industry generated sales revenue of ¥1.16tn in 2022, decreasing slightly by 0.1% from the previous year. Exports of the entire leather supply chain amounted to $107.55bn, a year-on- year increase of 19.3%, while imports amounted to $17.27bn, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year.
Colombia ended 2022 with lower
cattle slaughter Colombia’s 2022 cattle slaughter was 3.1 million head, a drop of 5.9% compared with 2021, according to data from National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE). This is the lowest figure in recent years for the cattle sector, but buffalo continued to trend upward to exceed its record level in 2021. At the end of 2022, the DANE Livestock Slaughter Survey showed slaughter totalled 3.107 million head of cattle and 38,323 of buffalo cattle, totalling 3.145 million animals. The cattle total is 5.9% lower than in 2021 and the lowest recorded in recent years. On the other hand, buffalo numbers increased to the best figure in a decade. Total slaughter is almost 195,000 head less than in 2021, and 4.6% less than the 3.25 million in 2020.
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