Transmission & distribution |
Grids must be bigger, stronger and smarter
The IEA describes its recent special report, Electricity grids and secure energy transitions, as offering “a first-of-its-kind global stocktake of the world’s grids as they stand now.” It assesses signs they are not keeping pace with the emerging global energy economy and the risk of them becoming a bottleneck, impeding efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions and ensure electricity security
Grids are set to become increasingly important as clean energy transitions progress, but they currently receive too little attention, says the IEA report. Clean energy transitions are now driving the transformation of our energy systems and expanding the role of electricity across economies. As a result, countries’ transitions to net zero emissions need to be underpinned by bigger, stronger and smarter grids. To achieve countries’ national energy and climate goals, the world’s electricity use needs to grow 20% faster in the next decade than it did in the previous one. Electricity demand needs to grow even more rapidly in a global pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, which is consistent with limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C. Expanded grids are critical to enable such levels of growth as the world deploys more electric vehicles, installs more electric heating and cooling systems, and scales up hydrogen production using electrolysis.
Reaching national goals also means adding or refurbishing a total of over 80 million kilometres of grid by 2040, the equivalent of the entire existing global grid. Grids are essential to decarbonise electricity supply and effectively integrate renewables. In a scenario in which countries’ national energy and climate goals are
met on time and in full, wind and solar PV account for over 80% of the total increase in global power capacity in the next two decades, compared with less than 40% over the past two decades. In the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, wind and solar account for almost 90% of the increase. The acceleration of renewable energy deployment calls for modernising distribution grids and establishing new transmission corridors to connect renewable resources – such as PV projects in the desert and offshore wind turbines out at sea – which are far from demand centres like cities and industrial areas.
Modern and digital grids are vital to safeguard electricity security during clean energy transitions. As the shares of variable renewables such as solar PV and wind increase, power systems need to become more flexible to accommodate the changes in output. In a scenario consistent with meeting national climate goals, the need for system flexibility doubles between 2022 and 2030. Grids need to both operate in new ways and leverage the benefits of distributed resources, such as rooftop solar, and all sources of flexibility. This includes deploying grid-enhancing technologies and unlocking the potential of demand response and energy storage through digitalisation.
Grids risk becoming the weak link of the clean energy transition, the IEA report contends. At least 3000 GW of renewable power projects, of which 1500 GW are at an advanced stage, are waiting in grid connection queues – equivalent to five times the amount of solar PV and wind capacity added in 2022. This shows grids are becoming a bottleneck for transitions to net zero emissions. The number of projects awaiting connection worldwide is likely to be even higher, as data on such queues is accessible for countries accounting for half of global wind and solar PV capacity. While investment in renewables has been increasing rapidly – nearly doubling since 2010 – global investment in grids has barely changed, remaining static at around USD 300 billion per year.
Delays in grid investment and reform would substantially increase global carbon dioxide emissions, slowing energy transitions and putting the 1.5°C goal out of reach. For its report, the IEA developed what it calls the Grid Delay Case to explore the impacts of more limited investment, modernisation, digitalisation and operational changes than are envisioned in the IEA’s climate-focused scenarios. The Grid Delay Case shows transitions stalling, with slower uptake of renewables and higher fossil fuel use. Cumulative
Tx = transmission
Dx = distribution
Above: Grid length development in advanced economies (million km), Announced Pledges Scenario, 2021-2050. Source: IEA, Electricity grids and secure energy transition, Licence: CC BY 4.0.
20 | March 2024|
www.modernpowersystems.com
Tx = transmission
Dx = distribution
Above: Grid length development in emerging market and developing economies (million km), Announced Pledges Scenario, 2021-2050. Source: IEA, Electricity grids and secure energy transition, Licence: CC BY 4.0.
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