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Substantial fall in fossil fuel power production


Worldwide Power statistics The latest International Energy Agency ‘Monthly Electricity Statistics’ report, which includes October 2023 data, shows that total net electricity production by OECD members was 848.0 TWh in October 2023, up by 2.6% compared to October 2022, despite a 2.8% drop in power derived from fossil fuels.. Renewable sources continued the increasing trend of 2023, showing a 7.0% growth year-on-year, driven by gains in generation from wind (+11.5%) and solar (+15.8% y-o-y) power. Wind power showed a sharp increase relative to the previous month (41.1% m-o-m), slightly ahead of the seasonal trend, especially in OECD Europe and the OECD Americas. An increase in


solar power was visible across all regions, but in OECD Asia Oceania it achieved its highest share of the electricity mix, contributing 11.6% to the total net electricity generation.


Electricity from fossil fuel sources decreased by 2.8% compared to October 2022, with markedly lower coal power production (-8.4% y-o-y). Production from gas fired power stations remained stable in October 2023 (+0.2% y-o-y), despite a large increase in the OECD Americas (+9.9% y-o-y).


Electricity generation from nuclear energy rose by 10.2% year-on-year in October 2023, driven by large increases in France (+39.7% y-o-y), Japan (+70.6% y-o-y), the United States (+4.2%) and Canada (+28.7% y-o-y).


Notably, the increase in New Zealand’s electricity production from wind power amounted to 408.7 GWh in October 2023, up by an extraordinary 34.8% compared to the same month last year.


For the second month in a row, wind power set new-record highs by providing more than 11% of the country’s total net electricity production, representing a remarkable increase in the share of wind generation. This was the direct result of several new capacity additions over the second half of 2023. With additional wind farms planned to be connected to the grid in the upcoming months, this upward trend is expected to continue.


Record investments in Norway’s hydro and wind


Norway Renewables Statkraft, the state-owned Norwegian enterprise said to be Europe’s largest renewable energy generator, is planning to invest up to €6 bn in upgrades to its hydro and wind power facilities, and the construction of new onshore wind farms.


”Today, Statkraft is presenting the largest investment programme of its kind in hydro and wind power in Norway for decades. This will be a major contribution to the energy system in Norway and to the green transition. It will also have positive effects on the Nordic and European energy markets,” says Christian Rynning-Tønnesen, CEO of Statkraft. The investment programme will include: 1.8 – €3 bn in upgrades and transformations


of Norwegian hydroelectric power plants; €1.2 – 2 bn in rehabilitation of dams, and modernisation of older power plants; €1 bn in renewal of existing, and construction of new, onshore wind farms; 2500 GWh or more in wind power production (more than double the current production); 1500-2500 MW increased capacity in hydroelectric power plants (a 20% increase in installed capacity).


The increased power needs of the future in Norway will mainly be covered by new wind power, but hydro will still be the backbone of the energy system. Statkraft plans for major upgrades of its hydro plants in the coming years. These include Mauranger, Aura, Alta, Svean plants in western, central and northern


part of Norway. Statkraft will also invest up to €2 bn inthe period 2024-2030 for the rehabilitation of dams and modernisation of older power plants.


Statkraft is Norway’s largest producer of wind power, and has extensive plans for both repowering of existing wind farms and new developments. It has started the concession and planning process to build the Moifjellet 260 MW wind power project in Rogaland. Repowering includes the Smøla, Hitra and Kjøllefjord windfarms in central and northern parts of Norway with an estimated increase in production of around 40 %. Statkraft is also looking at four possible wind power projects in Finnmark, northern Norway as well as many new wind power projects throughout Norway.


Germany ‘to miss coal phase-out target by years’ Germany Coal firing


Germany’s energy system is not expected to fully retire coal until the end of 2038 according to new projections from analyst Cornwall Insight. This challenges the coalition government’s commitment to phase-out coal by the end of the decade.


The modelling, from Cornwall Insight’s North West Europe Benchmark Power Curve casts doubt on Germany’s energy transition targets, with data showing nearly 19 GW of coal will still be part of the German energy system by 2030. In 2021, the coalition German government, made up of the Social Democratic, Green and Free Democrat parties, agreed to phase-out coal from the German energy system by 20301, eight years earlier than the original


target set out in the Coal Phase-out Act. The government initially intended to transition away from coal through a combination of renewable energy expansion and new gas-fired power plants. These plants, which would eventually switch to hydrogen, were anticipated to provide up to 25 GW of capacity. However, budget constraints have put this strategy on hold, leaving a critical gap in the plan.


The sanctions on Russian gas imports have added to the issues, with Germany needing to re-fire 8 GW of coal and lignite powered plants to compensate for the loss of gas capacity. Economic concerns have recently seen key figures, including the German finance minister, question the feasibility of the 2030 target.


Regional leaders have also voiced concerns about a lack of alternative generation sources if coal and lignite are phased out.


Tom Musker, modelling manager at Cornwall Insight commented: “Germany’s energy landscape is undergoing a dramatic transformation. The need to diversify away from Russian gas, alongside ambitious renewables targets have sparked a fundamental shift in how the nation sources its power. Germany is certainly going green, but the question is – how fast. The 2030 coal phase-out, once hailed as a bold step, now faces the harsh reality of economic barriers and stalled infrastructure development, casting serious doubt on the country’s ability to hit this target.”


www.modernpowersystems.com | January/February 2024 | 5


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