| Modelling Showing how it’s done


Modelling has been used to address various issues such as balancing transmission system capabilities in Serbia, dam break scenarios in Jordan and integrating renewables across South Asia


THE SERBIAN TRANSMISSION SYSTEM operator Elektromreža Srbije (EMS) is to use Energy Exemplar’s modelling software PLEXOS to help inform optimal investment decisions for expansion and upgrades to Serbia’s existing transmission system. Over an initial three-year agreement period, PLEXOS will help EMS model future investments by using simulation technologies to help modernise, expand and future-proof its energy system. Serbia currently relies on coal for 70% of its electricity


production, while access to the River Danube has provided a firm foundation for the domestic production of hydroelectricity which accounts for the remaining 30%. Modelling future energy scenarios and the long-term effects of greater investment will help Serbia to improve energy security and affordability, and to integrate renewable energy storages. With this in mind, it is important for EMS to be able to accurately model hydro energy capacities to assist in making intelligent and informed decisions about the form and nature that future investment should take.


Modelling multi-renewables Geospatial technology approaches that integrate


statistical data, spatial models, earth observation satellite data, and climate modelling can be used to conduct strategic analyses for understanding the potential and efficiency of renewable energy development. A recent study, published in Scientific Reports by Anjar Dimara Sakti et al, aims to create the first spatial model of its kind in Southeast Asia to develop multi-renewable energy from solar, wind, and hydropower, further broken down into residential and agricultural areas. The authors say that the novelty of this study is the development of a new priority model for renewable energy development resulting from the integration of area suitability analysis and the estimation of potential energy. Areas with high potential power estimations for the combination of solar, wind and hydropower are mostly located in northern Southeast Asia. Areas close to the equator, have a lower potential than the northern countries, except for southern regions. Solar photovoltaic (PV) plant construction is the most area-intensive type of energy generation among the considered energy sources, requiring (61.71%), followed by wind (16.98%); a combination of solar PV and wind (16%); hydro (3.28%); a combination of hydro and solar PV (1.62%); and a combination of hydro and wind (0.25%). Anjar Dimara Sakti et al say that this study is timely and important because it will inform policies and regional strategies for transitioning to renewable energy, with consideration of the different characteristics present in Southeast Asia which has pledges to increase its use of renewable energy by up to 23% by 2025.


Water Storage Recent trends and drivers behind volume changes


within the lakes that store 87% of earth’s fresh water,


remain largely unknown and has been complicated by modelling and observational limitations, Fangfang Yao et al claim in a recent paper published in Science. The authors say that current global hydrologic models either neglect lake water storage changes or provide oversimplified simulations using one- dimensional models of lake volume changes. In addition, in situ measurements of lakes are spatially sparse, have irregular temporal coverage, or are generally in decline. As a result, existing global-scale studies that document lake volume changes lack the capability to attribute decadal-scale variability because of limited spatial coverage, short temporal duration or large gaps in the time series. To help address this the authors recently analysed over 1972 of the largest global lakes, including 1051 natural lakes (100-377,00 km2 to 67,166km2


) and 921 reservoirs (4 ), which account for 96% and 83% of


Earth’s natural lake and reservoir storage, respectively. Three decades of satellite observations, climate data, and hydrologic models were used and discovered statistically significant storage declines for 53% of these water bodies over the period from 1992–2020. The authors say that their findings suggest drying trends worldwide are more extensive than previously thought.


Dam breach Dam breach modelling has been used by A’kif Al-Fugara


et al to help prepare emergency action plans for real dam breaks or flash flooding events. The purpose of this study, published recently in Sustainability, was to identify flood-prone areas in the AlWala Valley in Jordan through analysis of the AlWala Dam. Modelling of dam breaches was conducted under two scenarios: a Clear Day scenario, which does not address the various dam failure modes but the formation and development of a breach due to structural failures, and a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) scenario. The simulations revealed that, in the case of the Clear Day scenario, downstream inundation would cover an area of 5.262km2


However, in the event of a 6-, 12- and 24-hour storm, the flooded area would rise to 6.837km2 and 9.390km2


, 8.518km2 , respectively. References


Spatial integration framework of solar, wind, and hydropower energy potential in Southeast Asia by Anjar Dimara Sakti, Pitri Rohayani, Nurusshobah Ainul Izzah, Nur Afrizal Toya, Pradita Octoviandiningrum Hadi, Thanti Octavianti, Wendi Harjupa, Rezzy Eko Caraka, Yunho Kim, Ram Avtar, Nattapong Puttanapong, Chao-Hung Lin & Ketut Wikantika. Scientific Reports, Nature Portfolio (2023) 13:340 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25570-y


Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage by Fangfang Yao, Ben Livneh, Balaji Rajagopalan, Jida Wang, Jean-François Crétaux, Yoshihide Wada, Muriel Berge-Nguyen. Science 380, 743–749 (2023) 19 May 2023


Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling for Flash Flood and Embankment Dam Break Scenario: Hazard Mapping of Extreme Storm Events by Al-Fugara, A.; Mabdeh, A.N.; Alayyash, S.; Khasawneh, A. Sustainability 2023, 15, 1758. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15031758


www.waterpowermagazine.com | July 2023 | 33 ,


Above: The 270MW Djerdap hydropower project is located on the Danube River in Serbia. The Serbian transmission system operator is using modelling software to help inform optimal investment decisions for expansion and upgrades to the country’s existing transmission system


Below: A recent study into global water storage has assessed over 900 reservoirs


in the event of a pipe failure.


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