South America |
while hydro in permitting is much lower at 0.4GW. That suggests Peru’s hydro growth case is substantial but front-loaded into projects already advanced, while later-stage development is increasingly contested by wind and solar. The Peru report is unusually direct on system stress.
Above: Chile’s 690MW Ralco hydropower plant on the Biobío River is among the country’s largest hydro facilities and a key contributor to its renewable electricity generation Image: Enel
with diversification Peru rounds out the regional picture with a system
Peru balances hydro expansion
where hydro is still dominant in generation but no longer guaranteed primacy in future investment. In 2024, large hydropower accounted for 29.5% of installed capacity and 47.2% of annual generation, while small hydro contributed 3.5% of installed capacity. Total system capacity increased from 15.5GW in 2020 to 16.8GW in 2024 and is projected to reach 28.6GW by 2035. Over the same period, the report expects large-hydro installed-capacity share to decline to 21.7%. Peru’s hydro fleet includes Santiago Antunez
de Mayolo at 798MW, Cerro del Aguila at 510MW, Chaglla at 456MW, Huinco at 277.9MW, Canon del Pato at 264.4MW, El Platanal at 220MW, Restitucion at 210MW, San Gaban III at 209.3MW, Cheves at 172MW, Charcani V at 153MW and Chimay at 153MW. The Machu Picchu complex is also listed through separate entries, including Machu Picchu 2 at 102MW and Machu Picchu 3 at 90.45MW. Peru’s future hydro inventory is striking in scale.
Below: The Itaipu hydropower plant on the Paraná River, located on the Brazil–Paraguay border, remains one of the world’s largest hydroelectric projects and a cornerstone of Brazil’s electricity supply. Image: RobNaw/Shutterstock
The upcoming list includes Manseriche at 7,550MW, Chadin 2 at 600MW under construction, Majes Siguas II at 444MW under construction, Huallaga I at 392MW under construction, the Huamuco Hydroelectric Complex at 326.4MW, Alto Biavo at 302MW, the Peihap Multipurpose Project at 300MW under construction, Santa Teresa II at 280MW under construction, Anto Ruiz at 252.6MW under construction, Tingo I at 210MW under construction, Curibamba at 195MW, Belo Horizonte at 185.1MW, Pucara at 178MW and OCO 2010 at 170.3MW in permitting. Project-status data confirms hydro’s continued
prominence in the near-term pipeline. Between 2025 and 2035, Peru has 7.1GW of projects under construction, 6.6GW in permitting and 19.2GW announced across the power sector; within that, hydro dominates the under-construction pipeline at 4.2GW,
It states that drought-related constraints have led to widespread outages, load shedding and greater dependence on expensive diesel generation. It also identifies regulatory and market imbalances between regulated tariffs and spot-market prices as a deterrent to efficient new investment, while long permitting timelines and social conflicts near energy sites have slowed expansion. Policy has started to respond. In December 2024, Peru amended Electricity Generation Law 28832 to allow all generation technologies to compete in electricity supply tenders. The report also states that large hydropower projects operate under the Electricity Concessions Law, which governs permitting, environmental approvals and community requirements. Capital allocation in Peru shows where the market is moving. New power-sector investment was around $0.3bn in 2024 and is expected to rise to $1.5bn in 2030. Between 2020 and 2024, onshore wind was the largest recipient of investment at $0.9 billion, followed by hydro at $0.5bn. For 2025-2030, total power-sector investment is forecast at $7.2bn, of which solar PV is expected to account for 50%, hydro 27.7%, onshore wind 21.7% and gas the remainder. Hydro therefore remains a major investment class in Peru, but not the lead technology. Taken together, the four reports show a regional
hydro sector that remains indispensable but is no longer expanding on past assumptions. Brazil’s hydro backbone stays central but largely mature. Chile still values hydro, yet increasingly through the lens of flexibility, curtailment relief and project bankability in a storage-rich market. Argentina retains one of the region’s most substantial large-hydro construction and development pipelines, though execution remains the key test. Peru combines strong hydro dependence with an explicit policy move toward diversification and technology-neutral tenders. For the dam and hydropower industry, that suggests South America is entering a more conditional phase in which project success depends on how well schemes align with today’s grid needs: dispatchability, flexibility, transmission support, resilience to hydrological volatility, social acceptance and regulatory clarity. The hydro opportunity remains considerable, but it is now defined less by sheer river potential than by the ability to bring technically appropriate projects through increasingly demanding market and permitting frameworks.
References
GlobalData, Brazil Power Outlook, Update 2025: Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape.
GlobalData, Chile Power Outlook, Update 2025: Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape.
GlobalData, Argentina Power Outlook, Update 2025: Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape.
GlobalData, Peru Power Outlook, Update 2025: Market Trends, Regulations and Competitive Landscape.
The full reports can be purchased from
https://www.globaldata.com/store/
24 | April 2026 |
www.waterpowermagazine.com
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45
