| South America
framework. In investment terms, total new power- sector investment was around $22.1bn in 2024 and is expected at $15.5bn in 2030, with hydro forecast to take only 3.3% of total power-sector investment during 2025-2030.
Chile repositions hydro for flexibility Chile presents a different hydro profile: smaller in
absolute hydro scale than Brazil, but more sharply focused on flexibility, congestion management and the interface between hydro and storage. In 2024, large conventional hydropower accounted for 19.5% of installed capacity and 28.3% of annual generation. The report forecasts this installed-capacity share falling to 8.6% by 2035, while renewables overall rise from 48.6% of installed capacity in 2024 to 80.6% in 2035. Large hydro capacity itself still grows modestly from 6.8GW in 2024 to 7.1GW by 2035, but annual hydropower generation is projected to decline from 24.8TWh in 2024 to 20.7TWh by 2035. Chile’s active hydro fleet remains substantial, including Ralco at 690MW, Pehuenche at 570MW, Colbun at 474MW, Pangue at 467MW, El Toro at 450MW, Rapel at 377MW, Antuco at 320MW, Angostura at 316MW, Las Lajas at 267MW, Alfalfal II at 264MW, Rucue at 178.4MW, Alfalfal at 178MW, Canutillar at 172MW, La Confluencia at 163MW and La Higuera at 155MW. The upcoming list includes Paposo at 800MW, San Carlos at 154.38MW, Frontera at 109.3MW, Rucalhue at 90MW and Los Lagos at 52MW, alongside a series of smaller projects below 40MW. What distinguishes Chile in the reports is the operational context around hydro. The market analysis states that in the first half of 2024 more than 2,038GWh of solar and wind generation was curtailed, up 243% year on year, due to transmission congestion. It also notes that Colbun’s 777MW pumped hydro scheme and Statkraft’s 150MW Los Lagos hydro project have faced delay or suspension linked to permitting and community opposition. In response, the report points to the 2024 Energy Transition Law, intended to accelerate permitting and reform transmission planning, and to the 2022 Energy Storage and Electromobility Law, which allows batteries to access capacity markets. The Kimal-Lo Aguirre HVDC line, a 3,000MW and 1,500km project targeted for 2029, is identified as a key measure to relieve congestion. The investment signal in Chile is clear. New investment in the power sector stood at $6,941.9m in 2024 and is expected to rise to $8,912.3m in 2030, with total investment of $50,461m projected for 2025-2030. Solar PV is expected to take 59.2% of that total, followed by onshore wind. The same report notes that more than 2GW of battery storage is under development, with expected investment of more than $4bn through 2026, and elsewhere states that around 3GW of battery storage has been approved. For hydro developers, that implies future schemes will be judged less on bulk energy output than on flexibility, locational value and deliverability within a more congested grid.
Argentina’s large-dam pipeline
remains uncertain Argentina, by contrast, still shows a recognisably conventional hydro pipeline. In 2024, large conventional hydro accounted for 19% of installed
capacity, pumped storage for 2.1% and small hydro for 1.1%, giving large hydropower and pumped storage a combined 21.1% share of installed capacity. In annual generation, large hydropower and pumped storage accounted for 23% in 2024, behind thermal power at 52.7%. By 2035, the report projects the combined hydro and pumped storage share of installed capacity declining to 17%, while renewables rise from 15.2% in 2024 to 34.3%. Argentina’s large hydropower and pumped-storage capacity declined from 10.8GW in 2020 to 9.6GW in 2024, but is expected to rise again at a CAGR of 0.8% through 2035. Generation from large hydro and pumped storage is forecast to reach 36.4TWh in 2035. The active fleet includes Yacyreta-Argentina at 1,550MW, Piedra del Aguila at 1,440MW, El Chocon at 1,200MW, Alicura at 1,050MW, Salto Grande-Argentina at 945MW, Rio Grande at 750MW, Futaleufu at 560MW, Planicie Banderita at 479MW, Pichi Picun Leufu at 285MW, Los Reyunos at 224MW, Nihuil II at 131MW, Agua del Toro at 130MW, Arroyito at 128MW and Los Caracoles at 125MW. The upcoming hydro project slate is one of the
strongest in the group. Condor Cliff Dam is listed at 950MW and under construction for 2027. Chihuido follows at 871MW, also under construction, with 2029 completion indicated. Los Blancos in Mendoza is listed at 486MW, Pini Mahuida at 320MW, Anacua at 270.6MW and under construction for 2025, Portezuelo del Viento at 210MW in permitting, El Baqueano at 140MW and Nahueve at 4.6MW under construction. Overall project-status data for 2025-2035 shows 2,096.2MW of hydropower under construction, 210MW under permitting and 946MW announced. The market context remains more fragile than the
project list suggests. The report puts Argentina’s new power-sector investment at around $1.5bn in 2024 and $2.3bn in 2030. It also highlights the policy importance of Renewable Energy Law 27,191, which replaced Law 26,190 and set renewable-energy targets and incentives, and notes the ongoing role of RenovAr and RenMDI auction structures. But for large hydro specifically, the report’s evidence points to a market where engineering ambition persists while delivery remains closely tied to financing conditions, procurement structures and broader regulatory stability.
www.waterpowermagazine.com | April 2026 | 23
The 3,200MW Yacyretá hydropower project on the Paraná River remains one of South America’s largest binational hydroelectric schemes, supplying electricity to both Argentina and Paraguay. Image: Eby gov py/Wikimedia Commons License CC BY-SA 2.5.
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