OPINION | DAVID HESS
Fuelling around As the prospects for nuclear energy improve globally, the front end of the
nuclear fuel cycle is evolving. How it ends up looking is anyone’s guess, but there is clear evidence that new reactor development is shifting the market and potentially putting uranium supply chains under pressure.
David Hess, senior VP, DeepGeo
HIS COLUMN DOES NOT TYPICALLY deal in depth with the front end of the fuel cycle. There are more insightful sources of information that cover this topic, written by more qualified people. If you want advice on how to invest in uranium markets, then go talk to them. Nonetheless, it
seems like a safe statement to make that in the era of nuclear exuberance we find ourselves now, the price of fuel services will steadily climb as capacity at existing facilities is fully utilised, but other better experts can make this claim – or not as the case may be. The fuel market is a complex beast. A few years back there was a campaign to hype up
the uranium price conducted on social media platforms and especially X. This new class of uranium-crazed nuclear advocate was an uncomfortable addition to the family as their self-interest was obvious. Where other advocates sought to argue the benefits of nuclear energy for the sake of society, these individuals were doing it primarily for the sake of their own pocket. Some of them took the time to become genuine experts on the sector while many clearly did not.
While a certain amount of cheerleading is warranted,
even by cynical columnists, the unfolding story of the global development of nuclear energy has many interesting facets that invite exploration. In that spirit some recent fuel developments do stand out and reveal important and potentially long-term changes in the direction of the industry. One was highlighted on stage at World Nuclear
Association’s recent annual symposium in London where a speaker from Kazatomprom warned the audience of increasing pressure to sell more of its uranium to China. Kazakhstan, the country that supplies roughly 40% of the world’s U3O8 and cheaply at that, appears to be moving more into the orbit of its nuclear neighbours. As China continues to rapidly add nuclear capacity and Western countries dither, Kazatomprom finds itself under political and economic pressure to serve this country first. One assumes that a similar priority is also developing for Russia, which is supplying Kazakhstan with a nuclear power plant. To be clear, there was certainly no suggestion
© Alexy Kovynev
of exclusivity. Kazatomprom will continue to send uranium westward for the foreseeable future and is increasingly utilising the Trans Caspian International Transport Route for this purpose. However, more of its production is being sent to the neighbour in the East. From here, it does not move onto other countries. As each new reactor that starts up requires a full
“I invested in uranium companies.” “I did the same thing, but thirty years ago.”
16 | October 2026 |
www.neimagazine.com
core or fresh uranium fuel while operating reactors require much less, about of a third of a core, those countries building large numbers of reactors will exert considerably more influence on uranium sellers than those simply maintaining fleets. Being a non-VIP customer means having to deal with more of the volatility in a market where demand is growing. It is unreasonable to assume that supply will always seamlessly match demand, and while the uranium market experiences less day-to-day volatility than oil and gas, it is known to suffer multi-year structural shocks. Other countries must be feeling pressure to shore up their future supplies of uranium. The single best thing they could do to maintain buying power is proceed with building nuclear power plants, but it appears this process simply will not be rushed. Another step is to
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