OUTLOOK | FUEL & FUEL CYCLE
operating below capacity; and production at idled mines. It includes new projects, but it takes 8-15 years to reach production after discovery of a resource. Unless there is ‘intense’ development of new projects this decade, there may be supply disruptions. But several projects are at very advanced stages of development and should start production when market conditions improve.
Conversion, enrichment and fabrication The uranium conversion sector has a small number of companies producing UO2
required this decade. The modular nature of centrifuges and long lead times to build nuclear reactors mean that the expansion of enrichment capacity can take place in a timely way, and supply challenges should be avoided. The fuel fabrication market differs from the other
for those reactors fuelled with
natural uranium and UF6 for those using enriched uranium. Until 2018, the UF6 market was oversupplied, but the
is far lower than required, so inventories are being absorbed. In the medium-term, primary converters will have to increase production capacities. In the long term, the market may require expansion at existing facilities or a new conversion plant. Excess global enrichment capacity has meant capacity
was used for underfeeding and tails re-enrichment. Enrichers may continue to reduce existing capacity, by not replacing centrifuges at the end of their lives. In the Reference Scenario, additional enrichment capacity might be needed in the second half of the next decade, but in the Upper Scenario, more enrichment capacity will be
situation has changed dramatically. Conversion capacity was reduced, suspended and even closed and now production of UF6
stages of the nuclear fuel cycle due to the specificity of the product and the regional nature of the market. At present, existing fabrication capacities are sufficient to cover anticipated demand for both first cores and reloads; however, in some circumstances it is still possible that supply bottlenecks could occur for certain designs.
Outlook The report concludes that rapid uranium demand growth in a number of countries, above all in China, requires additional mined uranium within the period to 2040. In 2020 the market offered the reactor fleet 30% less uranium than was required. There was a sharp fall in investment in new mining projects. Irrespective of the uranium supply scenario, the capacity of all presently-known mining projects has to at least double by the end of the period. There is no doubt that sufficient uranium resources exist
to meet future needs; however, producers are waiting for the market to rebalance to start reinvesting in new capacity and restart idled projects. Enrichment and fuel fabrication capacities appear to be sufficient to cope with demand, but additional conversion capacity is likely to be needed. ■
Sustainability is integral to everything we do
We are proud of the important role we play as part of the civil nuclear industry in helping the world to decarbonise.
And we have committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions across our business in advance of 2040 as part of the Climate Pledge.
See more at
urenco.com/sustainability
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