FUEL & FUEL CYCLE | OUTLOOK


WNA projects uranium supply gap


The 2021 edition of the World Nuclear Association’s Nuclear Fuel Report suggests world reactor requirements for uranium in 2040 that are 12% higher than projected in the 2019 edition – and there is a looming supply gap that means new sources are needed this decade, NEI reports


SINCE THE PREVIOUS NUCLEAR FUEL REPORT, published two years ago, the prospects for nuclear power have improved, according to the World Nuclear Association. Countries committing to decarbonisation include China, Japan, the European Union, South Korea, the UK and the USA. China and the USA’s status as the two largest emitters has increased the focus on decarbonisation. This 2021 edition of The Nuclear Fuel Report continues a positive trend in nuclear projections. Two newcomer countries — Belarus and the United Arab Emirates — connected their first reactors to the grid; reactors were commissioned in China, India, Pakistan and Russia; construction of new reactors was launched in China, Iran and Turkey; and many other countries are considering expanding their nuclear programmes (Bulgaria, Netherlands, Romania, South Africa) or building their first reactors (Egypt, Poland, Uzbekistan). Life extension has been an increasing trend in countries with large reactor fleets, such as Canada, France, Russia, Ukraine and the USA. Three scenarios for world nuclear generating capacity up


to 2040 have been prepared, referred to as the Reference, Upper and Lower Scenarios. As of mid-2021, world operable nuclear capacity was 394GWe (from 442 units) with 60GWe (57 units) under construction. In the Reference Scenario, nuclear capacity is expected to rise to 439GWe by 2030 and to 615GWe by 2040. In the Upper Scenario, the equivalent figures are 521GWe in 2030 and 839GWe in 2040. The Lower Scenario shows a slight increase that becomes more pronounced after 2030 when new reactors in China, India and several newcomer countries, compensate for closures in the USA and Western Europe. Both Reference and Upper Scenarios show some decline


in global nuclear generating projections in 2025-2035 due to COVID delays. But no new project has been cancelled and in all three scenarios there is strong growth towards the end of the period. The World Nuclear Association’s reactor requirements model has been thoroughly revised for this edition, with a reassessment of the various factors affecting nuclear fuel demand, such as thermal efficiency parameters, enrichment levels and fuel burnups. For the first time, small modular reactors (SMRs) were included. Capacity factor assumptions for current and future reactors were also revised and updated using the most recent data.


Uranium production and requirements The world reactor requirement for uranium in 2021 is estimated at 62,500tU. In the Reference Scenario, this is


22 | October 2021 | www.neimagazine.com


expected to rise to 79,400tU in 2030 and 112,300tU in 2040. The Upper Scenario requirement is 99,000tU in 2030, and 156,500tU in 2040, while the Lower Scenario, requires nearly 70,000tU in 2030 and 79,400tU in 2040. In all three scenarios world reactor requirements for uranium in 2040 are 12% higher than was projected in the 2019 edition. World uranium production has dropped from 63,207tU


in 2016 to 47,731tU in 2020. Uranium exploration has been dramatically reduced (from $2.12 billion in 2014 to $483 million in 2018, according to the 2020 edition of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency’s Uranium Resources, Production and Demand) but production has also been curtailed at existing mines. More than 20,500t/yr of capacity is idle. Three scenarios for uranium production to 2040 have been developed by evaluating current and future mine production capabilities. Production volumes for existing mines are projected to remain fairly stable until the late 2020s in all three scenarios, and then they halve between 2030 to 2040. Since the previous edition of The Nuclear Fuel Report,


production at several mines has ceased due to the depletion of resources, and more mines are expected to be closed in the next decade. In all scenarios, the industry needs at least to double its development pipeline of new projects by 2040. There are more than adequate project extensions, uranium resources and other projects in the pipeline to accomplish this — if the market sends the necessary signals. In the Reference case, global primary uranium production


is expected to be 70,100tU in 2030 before declining to 50,600tU in 2040. In the Upper case, the figures are 76,100tU and 53,200tU, respectively. The partial return of idled mines to production is expected to commence in 2023 (Upper scenario) and in 2024 (Reference Scenario) and in 2025 in the Lower case. The role of secondary supplies of uranium will


gradually diminish, down from 14-18% of uranium reactor requirements now to 5-8% in 2040. But in the near-term commercial inventories (a secondary source) will be indispensable in bridging the gap between supply and demand. The uranium market is undersupplied, even with


secondary sources added to primary sources. Supply to fill that gap is difficult to quantify due to commercial sensitivity, political or strategic uncertainty, market volatility or other factors but it includes: commercial inventories; increased production levels at mines currently


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