OPINION | DAVID HESS
A question of time
For nuclear generation to occupy its place at the energy generation table it must deliver a meaningful impact. Ultimately that means collectively reaching new output records year after year. That can only be achieved through the birth of a more nimble and agile nuclear sector.
David Hess, Senior VP DeepGeo
he nuclear industry will probably celebrate 2025 as a milestone, but it will be a bittersweet occasion. This year it is broadly expected that global nuclear generation will hit an all-time high, finally eclipsing the previous record that, according to IAEA figures
at least, was set back in 2006. One hopes that the breaking of this milestone becomes an annual occurrence, or at the very least that we will not have to wait half a career for it to happen again. Many of us do not have half a career left.
As of writing Belgium has just repealed its nuclear
phase out law and even Denmark has announced plans to reconsider nuclear energy. Yet for all the enthusiasm that surrounds nuclear energy today the numbers tell a different story. Global nuclear electricity generation has been flat
overall for decades. In fact, it stopped growing even before the accident struck at Fukushima Daiichi. The idling of the entire fleet of Japanese reactors
©Alexy Kovynev
following the accident caused a dip of about 300 TWh from 2011 to 2012. This took the global nuclear industry about nine years to recover from – mostly achieved not by Japanese reactor restarts (which have proceeded at a snail’s pace) but the steady growth in nuclear plants led mainly by China. Since about 2019 nuclear output has oscillated, but it has not yet officially broken through the 2006 ceiling. This is the kind of statistic that anti-nukers and opponents love to stick in our faces. They are not exactly wrong, but they are not right either. It is obvious that growth in nuclear capacity will lag the initial excitement by 15, 20 years or more. This is the average time taken today for excitement to turn into policy and for policy to transform into real generating projects – at least in Western countries. If the global nuclear generation stats look average then the nuclear as a share of electricity statistic is downright depressing. The nuclear share has been shrinking and has now certainly fallen beneath 10% of global production as electricity demand has risen worldwide while nuclear has flatlined over the same period. The WNA has the nuclear share pegged at 9% (2023 data). It will have been overtaken by wind energy in the last year or so, and solar power won’t be far behind. While the phrase ‘alternative energy’ has always struck as being arbitrarily defined, it would seem to apply to nuclear now. Nuclear is no longer mainstream – it is the fringe. While it’s uplifting to live in a period of unprecedented
“The patient has an excellent prognosis, but I’m afraid he still won’t live to see the next global nuclear generation record”
14 | June 2025 |
www.neimagazine.com
excitement for nuclear energy, the fact is that for those of us in these countries, the longed-for kilowatthours may be destined for our children to enjoy. Have you ever considered that when we talk about generations of nuclear technology we are also in effect talking about generations of people? If Gen III was for Gen X, then it seems that Gen IV will help to power Gen Z/alpha. Sadly, the reverse is not true. The premature closure of
nuclear plants can happen in weeks to months rather than decades. Or in even less time whenever a nuclear incident
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