22 | Opinion: 2023 Predictions


Helen Hewitt BWF chief executive


It’s clear that 2022 was not quite the post- pandemic ‘back to normal’ that everyone expected. The war in Ukraine and the resulting energy and cost-of-living crisis, alongside the fall-out of the pandemic, continue to impact on the construction sector. Unfortunately, the latest 2023 forecasts from the Construction Products Association (CPA) highlight how these factors – along with a potential recession – are likely to cause construction output to fall by 3.9% this year. However, there remain strong opportunities for our sector that can support growth over the coming 12 months. This is particularly true when it comes to the use of timber windows, doors and features in new build properties. Helping to meet the government’s broader aim of reducing carbon emissions and supporting the construction industry to become carbon net zero, timber windows offer a sustainable and durable alternative to PVCu and aluminium windows, that have a desirable aesthetic. This market is key to the BWF membership, and one that we will be supporting our members to grow their influence in through awareness and educational campaigns in 2023. Another key area for development next


year, for the BWF and the broader sector, is training, skills and continued professional development. It’s an area I’m very passionate about. We’re currently tackling a nationwide skills shortage that is affecting all industries and, as a profession, we need to plan ahead to ensure we inspire the next generation of talent, and retain the skilled professionals within our field.


TTJ | January/February 2023 | www.ttjonline.com


To support this, the BWF will be running


an exciting awareness campaign linked to National Apprenticeship Week. This will not only encourage those new to the sector, but also highlight the various career paths and opportunities available within our profession. Another key focus for the BWF over the coming 12 months will be raising awareness of industry best practice and upcoming legislation. We’ll be launching the third phase of our successful Fire Door Alliance campaign, Be Certain, Be Certified, to boost the specification of third-party certified fire doors, as well as keeping our members and the broader industry updated on the upcoming changes to Part K of the Building Regulations around safe staircase design. It’s clear that 2023 will bring with it new opportunities and potentially some fresh challenges for our sector to navigate. But following the BWF Awards this year and the demonstration of talent, skill and expertise that we celebrated, I have no doubt that this time next year, our sector will be in an even stronger position. ■


We’re currently tackling a nationwide skills shortage that is affecting all industries and, as a profession, we need to plan ahead to ensure we inspire the next generation of talent, and retain the skilled professionals within our field


John Newcomb CEO, Builders Merchants Federation


For most of us the story of 2022 was dominated by spiralling energy prices, rising interest rates, price inflation, and quite extraordinarily, three UK prime ministers! In these circumstances it comes as no surprise that GfK, the market intelligence and research company, reports consumer confidence is at a record low. While it is difficult to see this changing in the short term, however, I don’t believe the outlook is as bleak as the Bank of England’s forecast of a two-year recession may suggest. The downturn in the general economy over the last 12 months has been reflected in construction, with the BMF’s Builders Merchants Building Index (BMBI) confirming sales volumes slowed, while most prices increased. Looking ahead, the BMF’s Winter Forecast provides the most accurate view of our members’ main markets of housing and RMI. The first quarter of 2023 is looking reasonably stable, and at present we do not foresee a major downturn – such as that seen in 2008/09 – in the coming 12 months. Looking more closely at timber and joinery products (which had been one of the strongest performers throughout 2021) BMBI Q3 2022 year-to-date indicators found sales remained almost flat in value, with a volume decline of -17.8%.


A gradual slowing of demand for almost all construction products across most sub- sectors over the last three months of 2022 helped to ease the pressures on product supply. There are ample stocks of most popular timber products currently in the UK, which along with reduced shipping costs,


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