LONDON CALLING AVs THE PLACE TO BE IF YOU’RE A RIDE-HAILING AV
Article by Barak Sas
www.movingppl.com
London, Summer of 2026: the city is the world’s #1 battleground for autonomous ride-hailing, with multiple global players launching simultaneously. Already committed to the cause are Uber and Wayve, Lyft/FREENOW and Baidu, and Waymo. Expect others (cough, Bolt) to join. From consumer- apps to technology players - let’s look at London - a year from now.
Why are AV companies focusing on London all of a sudden?
Because the UK government sped up AV adoption. In June, the UK's Transport Minister announced an accelerated framework,
aimed at bringing
autonomous ride-hailing to London in the spring of 2026, a year ahead of the originally planned deployment.
On July 21st, the UK government published an Open Consultation on “Automated passenger services: permitting scheme” which further opens the door for autonomous ride-hailing operations; we can expect regulation to be completed toward the end of 2025 / beginning of 2026.
Why is London so important?
Shame on you for even asking such a question, but here goes:
l London is big. The city has 9 million residents and over 20 million tourists entering each year. Come 2026 It will be the largest autonomous ride-hailing market in the Western world. It is also ideal for ride-hailing economics, offering a large dense urban environment. Fun fact: it is one of Uber’s five highest revenue cities.
l London is complex. Modern streets next to medieval ones. Mixed traffic with buses & cars next to cyclists. People constantly cross the street on a
28
red light. Plenty of road work in a dense urban environment. Rain, and lots of it. Possible snow and hail come winter. This isn’t Phoenix or Austin with wide, easy streets and good weather. If you can make it in London - you can make it anywhere.
There’s more reasons, but let’s stop here. You get the point.
So how will the future commercial competitive landscape look like?
Good question. This piece focuses on commercial autonomous ride-hailing. Some AV companies might enter London for limited trials, piloting both technology and commercial / consumer facing operations. But now we’re focusing on what will move the needle, i.e. full-scale commercial operations.
And the players are:
1. Uber and Wayve - most likely to lead the market. The partnership between both companies is a strategic one, going back to August 2024 when Uber participated in Wayve's $1.05 billion round. Uber is the largest ride-hailing player in London, estimated to command ±70% of the ride-hailing market. Wayve is London-based, has performed trials in London for years now, and has a local operations team.
2. Lyft-FREENOW and Baidu (Apollo Go) - a recently announced partnership, Lyft is now partnering with Baidu, a prominent AV player. FREENOW’s London market share is circa 10%, divided between PHV (gig) and Black Cabs. Will Lyft use the opportunity to introduce its brand in Europe, side-by-side FREENOW which will continue to work with Black Cabs, or will FREENOW be the front for this operation, risking backlash from Black Cabs? TBD.
3. Waymo has recently started advertising a Business Operations Principal role - indicating that the company is gearing up for a London launch. Waymo’s options: go solo (e.g. San Francisco), partner with a ride-hailing player (Bolt, Gett) or do both.
SEPTEMBER 2025 PHTM
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