So…the list of countries that, let’s put this tamely before we go into it, that have voiced concerns are, just to name a few…China, the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Indonesia & Malaysia. I will concentrate on the first two…China has opposed and rejected compliance with EUDR, specifically refusing to share geolocation data and citing ‘security’ concerns1
. Much of China’s timber comes from the
Congo Basin and China supplies the EU with about half its timber furniture and more than 40% or paper boxes…so EUDR may become quite a hit on the supply chains for these products.
Then there is the U.S. and the administration of President Biden has pressured the EU to delay implementing these ‘…impossible standards…’ with 27 Senators warning that the new rules amount to a ‘…non-tariff trade barrier…’ and could end the USD 3.5 billion forest product trade between the U.S. and the EU1
.
On top of these, there is also concern within the EU, expressed by twenty out of the twenty-seven EU Agriculture Ministers voicing their own particular fears1
. 1
mongabay.com – 6 Aug 2024
‘AT THE TIME OF WRITING, THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION HAS PROPOSED A DELAY TO THE IMPLANTATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION DEFORESTATION REGULATION (‘EUDR’) BY 12 MONTHS…’
A far bigger impact would be felt in smaller countries dependant on specific crops that fall under EUDR. An example of this is Ethiopia, where in recent years the economy was dependant on between 30 – 35% of its export earnings on just one product – coffee! A recent modelling exercise estimated that in the most extreme example, if exports of coffee to the EU were to cease, Ethiopia might face an 18.4% drop in overall exports, a 5.8% fall in imports, a fall in GDP of 0.6% and a reduction of 3.3% in public revenue2
.
Implementation of EUDR could lead to a ‘Green Squeeze’ on smaller, lesser developed countries unless there is increased financial & technical assistance, targeted support for smallholder farmers and increased and continued engagement with the governments of lesser developed countries3
.
2
odi.org – 23 Sep 2024 3
odi.org – 4 Oct 2024
9 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q4 Edition 2024
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