Ironically as these graphics on major economy debt trends highlight, Germany is in by far the best position to increase its debt to stimulate its ailing economy, while most other economies need to address what are unsustainable trends. What has been very striking as we have traversed this year’s elections in the developed world is that each election has been a trigger for country debt related risk premia to rise, starting with the French election, followed by the UK, Japan and US, and 2025 will see elections in Germany and Canada, and while the next Italian election is not due until 2027, PM Meloni is increasingly facing challenges within her coalition.


Graph 1: Debt Loads are set to expand Globally


JAPAN AND US, AND 2025 WILL SEE ELECTIONS IN GERMANY AND CANADA, AND WHILE THE NEXT ITALIAN ELECTION IS NOT DUE UNTIL 2027...


Source: Bloomberg Economics.


Note: Debt as proportion of gross domestic product


25 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q4 Edition 2024


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