ANOTHER SUGAR RECORD? India produced a record 36 million tonnes of sugar in 2021/22. They then exported a record 11 million tonnes filling demand gaps left by lower Brazilian production. These exports enabled mills to pay farmers for the cane much quicker than in the past so, consequently, the farmers have continued to grow as much cane as possible aided by another excellent monsoon when rainfall was abundant. The just started 2022/23 harvest promises to be another whopper and many believe sugar production could be another record at 37 million tonnes despite more cane going to ethanol production. After many weeks of delay, the Indian government recently announced their export quota for the season. An initial 6 million tonnes will be allowed with another 3-4 million tonnes later in the season when production and domestic demand have been assessed. Demand for the first tranche of exports is good with all 6 million tonnes likely to be sold by the end of the year and shipped by March. The second tranche will compete with Thailand and Brazil. Thailand is also expecting higher production and explains why prices for the second half of next year are at a large discount to the current spot month as most analysts pencil in a 2-4 million tonne surplus for the season with ample supply once India and Thai sugars come available alongside Brazil 2023/24 production.


THE JUST STARTED 2022/23 HARVEST PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER WHOPPER AND MANY BELIEVE SUGAR PRODUCTION COULD BE ANOTHER RECORD AT 37 MILLION TONNES


9 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2022


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