$7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2010 Source: Drewry 2015 2020
FRUITFUL HARVEST Sunflower harvest in Ukraine in 2022 actually proved to be more fruitful than the trade anticipated, even with the ongoing hostilities and areas of Eastern Ukraine under occupation. Inevitably, it is anticipated that the 2023 harvest will be lower, with the trade expecting the overall crop size to be around 30% lower, in the region of 12.25Mmt, 2.25Mmt lower than 2022. Russian sunflower production is anticipated to increase with sunflower production for 2023 estimated to hit 17Mmt, an uplift of 10% on 2022 but still an overall deficit of 3.85Mmt on current forecasted levels. This will have a knock on effect on prices, even with a stronger EU crop as 3.85Mmt is a colossal amount to fill.
Ukrainian sunflower oil production is also anticipated to be lower unsurprisingly. According to Ukroliyaprom Association, Ukraine will be producing 4.0Mmt of sunflower oil in the 2022/23 marketing year
while 4.2Mmt will be exported, including product from last year’s reserves. This is in comparison to 5.2Mmt of sunflower oil produced and 4.3Mmt exported in the 2021/22 marketing year.
The graph on the right shows the world export prices for sunflower in US/tonne and the knock on effects that the cessation of Ukrainian exports and then the resumption of Ukrainian exports had on the market. It is well worth noting that the most recent October 2022 prices surged to $721/t for EU Bordeaux (+13% from previous month). Much of this has been a reflection of the fears regarding the grains corridor.
A similar picture is being seen on the rapeseed front. While sunflowers have been part of Ukrainian and Russian cropping for a while now, sunflower oil has been commercially produced in Russia since 1830, rapeseed hasn’t had as strong a following in Eastern Europe.
World export prices for sunflower - (USD/tonne)
1160 1060 960 860 760 660 560 460 360
EU Bordeaux -721 Ukraine -495
Source: International Grains Council 21 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2022
01/10/21 01/01/22 01/04/22 01/07/22 01/10/22
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