Euronext Front Month Rapeseed contract.
PRICE VOLATILITY Prices have seen some considerable volatility, with volatility visible even prior to the Ukrainian war, especially with rapeseed due to poor harvests in Europe. The Euronext Rapeseed contract is the primary benchmark for Black Sea oilseeds and the graph above demonstrates the price volatility.
Front month rapeseed prices peaked at an all time contract record high of €1081.25/t on the 22nd April 2022, an enormous 59% increase on the previous peak of €681.25/t on the 29th of April 2021. Current front month prices are trading considerable lower from the all time peak, but still trading strongly when compared to historical prices with front month rapeseed trading in the €640/t range at time of writing.
Consumers domestically also saw the direct correlation hitting their pockets with rapeseed oil in the supermarkets soaring by up to 100% with examples being Mazola Pure Rapeseed Oil 1L increasing in price from £2 to £4 in Sainsbury’s on 28th May 2022 and in Asda on 31st May 2022. Crisp ’n Dry Simply 100% Rapeseed Oil 2L rose in price from £3 to £3.30 in Asda on 15 May and was subject to a further price increase in the retailer on 31 May, rising to £6 according to ‘The Grocer’.
Moving forward, it is anticipated that prices will not revert to the substantial levels witnessed earlier this year and as
23 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2022
long as the grains corridor remains open, bullishness from this angle will be subdued. Sunflower prices have found additional support as lower production forecasts and fears of less availability from Ukrainian origin sink into the market where as rapeseed production appears to be anticipating little impact for Ukrainian origin with planting forecasts remaining stable for 2023. As turbulence continues in the current geopolitical climate, things may change but it remains doubtful if we will see the market excitement again that we saw earlier this year.
Dominic Enston Account Executive Grains and Oilseeds Derivatives Broking E:
dominic.enston@admisi.com T: +44 (0)20 7716 8477
Source: Reuters
THE EURONEXT RAPESEED CONTRACT IS THE PRIMARY BENCHMARK FOR BLACK SEA OILSEEDS
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