EDITORS NOTE
Sugar markets have had a good year, so what are the prospects for the new season, in terms of supply in key producers Brazil and India, and how uncertain is the demand picture?
Pandemic, Risk, Supply Chain Disruption, China, Regenerative, Freight, Central Banks, Sugar, Wheat, Metals
Welcome to the September 2021 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, which as ever covers a wide range of topical issues, from ‘regenerative agriculture’ through dry freight shipping, grains and sugar supply and demand outlooks, central bank tapering, risk management trends to China’s regulatory clampdown and property sector woes.
‘Regenerative’ is an ‘en vogue’ buzzword these days, particularly in respect of Agriculture, but all too often it is yet more ‘greenwashing’ – so what does it mean in real practical terms, where are the risks and opportunities?
Expectations for the global Wheat harvest are being dialled back due to weather induced harvest delays, and what in quality terms looks to be a European poor crop, we take a look at how this is impacting Paris Milling Wheat futures.
The pandemic’s supply chain disruptions have moved skyrocketing ocean dry freight container rates into the mainstream, above all in terms of inflation risks, so what have and will be the key drivers going forward. As much as VaR (value at risk) has long been at the centre of risk managers’ assessments, it is anything but perfect, and many have started to look at incorporating EVT (Extreme Value Theory) to try and better anticipate so-called ‘fat tail’ risks.
As the Fed and other major central banks start to consider tapering QE measures, what impact will this have on equity markets. China’s raft of regulatory interventions in so many sectors of its economy continue to send shockwaves through markets, foster doubts about its economic outlook, while its property sector woes are reviving concerns about the nebulous world of metals transit finance.
THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE
EDITORS IN CHIEF Eddie Tofpik
E:
eddie.tofpik@
admisi.com Marc Ostwald
E:
marc.ostwald@admisi.com
PRODUCTION & CIRCULATION
CREATIVE DESIGN Simrat Kaur Sounthe
MARKETING Megan Hodgson
ADM CONTRIBUTORS Alan Bush
Eddie Tofpik
Howard Jenkins Marc Ostwald
Rohan Ziegelaar Ryan Easterbrook
EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTORS
Alberto Peixoto Meghan Sapp Stefan Albertijn
© 2021 COPYRIGHT ADM INVESTOR SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. © 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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