SOME THOUGHTS ON DRY BULK OCEANFREIGHT MARKETS IN 2021… AND BEYOND


Since the end of the first COVID-19 wave, oceanfreight – or at least the container segment of it – has been making headlines in the popular press. The Suez-canal blockade by the Ever Given and a US Anti-Trust Probe into price setting by container liners being the most catchy ones. Looking at the Baltic Freightos Container Freight Index (FBX) we indeed see that after years of sideways movement, container rates started picking up after the first COVID wave on the back of increased demand for “disposables” and other hygienic consumables that are mainly produced in the Far East.


Add to that COVID-induced capacity limitations on export and import terminals, empty containers in the USA/EU not finding repositioning cargo (and have to be shipped empty to Asia), modest fleet growth and liners not undercutting each other in deviation of past habits and we see an explosion of container freight rates which doesn’t seem to have reached its peak yet. Industry sources predict that the capacity mismatch is likely to last through at least Q1 2022 (Chart 1).


INCREASED COMPETITION WITH TRADITIONAL HANDYSIZE CARGOES RESULTING IN A FURTHER PRICE DRIVE GIVEN THERE WAS – AND IS – VERY LITTLE GROWTH IN THE HANDYSIZE FLEET.


12 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2021


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