POTENTIAL BULLISH DEMAND FACTOR US OUTLOOK
Here in the US, the USDA is forecasting US production at just over 16 bil. bu. which is already down 6% from last year’s record crop. A recent crop tour conducted by the Ag. consulting group Pro Farmer, estimates this year’s crop would only reach 15.344 bil. bu., down nearly 670 mil. bu. from the USDA estimate in August. They felt production was held back by extreme heat in the Western corn belt and plain states while heavy rain in the central and Eastern corn belt in July and early August will hold yields below last year record yields. While I sense the market is already trading a US production figure well below the USDA forecast, I don’t think we are trading production as low as the Pro Farmer estimate. In my opinion, US production below 15.5 bil. bu. would drive spot corn prices above $6 this fall as US demand would need to be rationed.
Another potentially bullish demand factor could be Chinese buying of US corn. While China has been actively buying US soybeans, so far there has been no interest in securing corn. As part of a trade agreement this spring, the Trump Admin. claims that in addition to China securing 25 mmt of US soybeans over each of the next 3 MY’s they also agreed to purchase $17 bil. in US Ag. products outside of the soybean complex, which would almost certainly have to include corn.
As we move closer to Q4 of 2026 and into 2027 I see a lot of reasons why we could see higher, if not significantly higher corn prices. That said, we have already seen speculative traders pile into the long side of the market. The most recent CFTC report showed MM’s were long just over 376k contracts, the highest in 4 years. Strong buying since the report date has likely taken the speculative long position to a new record high, surpassing the previous record long of 429k contracts from Oct-2010. While expect price volatility to remain high, I suspect the path of least resistance will remain to the upside.
Mark Soderberg E:
mark.soderberg@
admis.com
# Contracts
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(400,000) (350,000) (300,000) (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) -
Money Manager Price
Corn - Money Managers
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AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO Q4 OF 2026 AND INTO 2027 I SEE A LOT OF REASONS WHY WE COULD SEE HIGHER, IF NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CORN PRICES.
Source: ADM Investor Services Inc. 7 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2026
3-Jul-26
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