Thailand provides another important example of the changing weather narrative. The country's sugarcane belt endured an exceptionally dry start to the current cycle, with major rainfall deficits between December and March. Conditions improved sharply from May onwards, when national rainfall reached 224.6 mm, approximately 21% above normal. The southwest monsoon subsequently became more firmly established, with generally favourable rainfall across the Northeast during July and repeated precipitation events during August.


The improvement is encouraging because the Northeast accounts for the majority of Thailand's sugarcane production. However, conditions remain uneven, particularly between the Northeast and parts of the Central cane belt. The severe moisture stress experienced earlier in the year may still affect some fields, while September rainfall will be important for final stalk development. A transition towards drier weather later in the year would subsequently be beneficial for harvesting and sucrose accumulation.


Together, Brazil, India and Thailand demonstrate why the global sugar market is becoming increasingly sensitive to weather. Brazil is dealing with too much rain, parts of India remain concerned about insufficient and uneven rainfall, while Thailand is recovering from an exceptionally dry start to the year. These contrasting conditions make global production forecasts more difficult and increase the importance of developments during the final months of 2026.


THE WIDER AGRICULTURAL COMPLEX FACES SIMILARLY INTERCONNECTED RISKS.


The most immediate geopolitical shock has come from the Black Sea, where escalating military activity has severely disrupted grain exports from Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine's principal ports around Odesa effectively ceased normal operations following attacks on terminals and vessels, forcing exports towards the Danube and western land borders.


These alternative routes cannot match the capacity of the Black Sea. Ukraine had previously exported at least 4.0 million metric tonnes of food cargo monthly, but August exports were expected to fall to approximately 1.7 million tonnes. More significantly, the disruption could have consequences beyond the current marketing season. Ukrainian farmers rely on export revenues to finance future planting, and authorities have warned that winter wheat planting for the 2027 harvest will decline as farmers struggle to move already harvested grain.


This transforms the crisis from a short-term logistical disruption into a potential multi-season supply risk. Wheat futures have responded accordingly, reaching multi-year highs as buyers reassess the reliability of Black Sea supplies.


EUROPE FACES ITS OWN WEATHER PROBLEMS.


France's maize crop has suffered severe damage from the prolonged hot and dry summer. By August 24, only 28% of the crop was rated good or excellent, compared with 62% a year earlier, while the European Commission reduced its forecast for usable EU maize production to 50.1 million metric tonnes, a 19-year low.


The implications extend beyond corn. Lower domestic maize availability could increase demand for feed wheat, potentially reducing Europe's exportable surplus at a time when global buyers are already searching for alternatives to disrupted Russian and Ukrainian supplies. The result is an increasingly interconnected grain market in which drought in France and war in the Black Sea can influence the same global balance.


Corn prices have also been supported by doubts over U.S. yields following evidence of weather-related crop stress during the growing season. Brazil offers a more constructive outlook, however, with its 2026/27 corn crop projected at 145.6 million metric tonnes, supported by expansion of second-crop planting.


The soybean complex has entered September with strong momentum, supported by Chinese demand and fresh U.S. export sales. At the same time, the prospect of increased U.S. biofuel obligations for 2027 has strengthened the outlook for soybean oil and competing renewable fuel feedstocks.


18 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2026


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