FROM INSURANCE PREMIUM TO COMMODITY NETBACK


For the freight desk, insurance is only the first order charge. Depending on the charter type and wording, an additional war premium may be reimbursed by the charterer. The larger costs can arise elsewhere. Detours add sea days, bunker consumption, hire, finance and emissions costs. Additional fuel reserves occupies space, which may reduce cargo intake. Waiting, security measures and crew arrangements add further expense.


Rerouting and voyage refusals reduce effective vessel supply and increase tonne mile demand. Owners consequently demand more freight for the remaining suitable and willing tonnage. All of this enters the commodity calculation and the seller’s netback compares the destination value with freight, insurance, finance, expected loss and other costs required to move the cargo.


absorb higher bunker prices, longer routes and scarcer tonnage. Buyers may switch origins. Sellers may redirect cargoes. A port that appears expensive on the commodity screen may become competitive once the safer freight route is valued correctly.


INSURABILITY HAS BECOME A FRONT OFFICE VARIABLE.


When the total cost of passage rises, an apparently open arbitrage can disappear and another can appear. Freight has the greatest effect when it is large relative to the cargo value or expected trading margin, although an increase in the commodity price may partly offset the additional cost.


A fertiliser cargo directly exposed to Gulf disruption feels the shock first. [12]


Grain, coal, ores and minor bulks also Sources


1. https://www.igpandi.org/article/about/ 2. https://lmalloyds.com/committee/joint-war-committee/


3. https://iumi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Spring-Stats- Statement-2026.pdf


4. https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/secretarygeneral/pages/no- safe-passage-strait-of-hormuz-remains-highly-volatile.aspx


5. https://iumi.com/news/press-release/iumi-statement-marine- insurance-in-the-middle-east-updated-24-june-2026/


6. https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/SecretaryGeneral/Pages/new- attacks-on-ships-in-the-Strait-of-Hormuz.aspx


7. https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/ statement-on-recent-attacks-in-the-red-sea.aspx


8. https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/ statement-on-attacks-in-black-sea-and-sea-of-azov.aspx


9. https://lmalloyds.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/JWLA-033_Iran. pdf


10. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-forces-intercept-russian- shadow-fleet-vessel-for-the-first-time-in-blow-to-putins-war-chest


11. https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/03/g7-foreign- ministers-declaration-on-maritime-security-and-prosperity.html


12. https://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-beyond- reopening-lasting-impacts-vulnerable-economies


Fragmented markets create price dislocations and higher barriers to entry. Opportunity shifts towards traders able to assemble compliant title, reliable counterparties, finance, suitable ships, insurance, security advice and a credible exit market. These traders may then capture spreads between buyers and sellers that have become commercially disconnected.


Capabilities associated with Marc Rich, primarily the ability to do difficult things in difficult places, may therefore return, but inside well capitalised organisations with strong compliance functions


rather than through individual mavericks.


Mads Frank Markussen Head of Freight Research


CM Navigator E: research@navimerchants.com T: +(0045) 31 14 94 57


11 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2026


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