90%
Super El Niño Risk
15.344BN BU USDA vs Pro Farmer Estimate Gap $17BN
Potential China
Demand MARKET OUTLOOK
HIGHER PRICE POTENTIAL "The path of least resistance will remain to the upside." Mark Soderberg
Potential Corn Price Scenario
>$6 670MBU USDA vs Pro Farmer Estimate Gap 376K
Net Long Contracts
EL NIÑO’S IMPACT
El Niño’s impact on crops and agricultural markets can be substantial as it often leads to heat and drought conditions in central and N. growing regions in Brazil, while above to much above normal precipitation across South Brazil and much of Argentina.
The last El Niño back in 2023/24, which was considered moderately strong resulted in Brazilian corn production falling 13% from the previous year while the Argentine crop pretty much saw trendline yields. Back in 2015/16, which was the last super El Niño, Brazilian corn production fell 21% from the previous year. So obviously as the US crop season and harvest winds down, all eyes will shift to SA weather and their production prospects.
Brazilian Corn Production/Yield MMT's
20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
- Production Yield Ton/HA
4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.4
Mil. Bu.
8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000 17500
Production US Yield Linear (US Yield)
US Corn Production/Yield
BPA
100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190
Source: ADM Investor Services Inc.
Source: ADM Investor Services Inc. 6 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2026
26/27-USDA 26/27-PF
25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01
26/27 25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15
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