THE OLD CLICHÉ THAT BIG CROPS KEEP GETTING BIGGER ISN’T ALWAYS SUPPORTED BY THE HISTORICAL EVIDENCE.
The old cliché that big crops keep getting bigger isn’t always supported by the historical evidence. Since 1990 corn yields have been raised 18 times in the month of August. In 12 of those years, final yields were below the August estimate with the remaining 6 years coming in above the August estimate. Oddly enough the last 6 times corn yields rose in August, final yields were below the August estimate every year by an average of 2.67 bpa. While corn crop conditions remain historically high, several high profile crop tours felt the USDA yield estimate was too high. In addition these tours uncovered disease pressures that may not have been picked up by the weekly surveyors. With the summer growing season coming to an end, weather moving forward will have less impact on this year’s final production. The biggest risk at this point would be powerful storms with damaging winds that could cause brittle corn stalks to break making harvest operations more difficult and less efficient. This was contributing factor to corn yields fallings from a then record 181.8 bpa in Aug-2020 to the final yield that year at 174.6 bpa. Chart 1.
Based on current crop ratings and estimated ear population data I’m forecasting this year’s crop at 16.450 bil. bu. down 292 mil. bu. from the USDA forecast. My average yield forecast at 185.5 bpa is down from the USDA estimate of 188.8 bpa. If I had to lean a direction with this forecast looking forward it would be slightly lower. As of this writing in late August, Dec-25 corn prices are trading close to $4.10 bu. and in my opinion would reflect a US crop just under 16.5 bil. bu. Chart 2.
BPA
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
(14.0) (12.0) (10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) -
Aug. To Final Corn Yield Change When Raised in Aug. Aug. To Final Corn Yield Change When Raised in Aug.
Chart 1. Source: ADM Investor Services, Inc. US Corn Production/Yield Mil. Bu.
8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 15000 15500 16000 16500 17000
US Corn Production/Yield
BPA
105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190
Production Chart 2. Source: ADM Investor Services, Inc.
US Yield
Linear (US Yield)
5 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2025
2024 2020 2019 2018 2016 2015 2014 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2000 1998 1995 1994 1992
25/26-ADMIS 25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 21/22 20/21 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 10/11 09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01 99/00 98/99 97/98 96/97 95/96
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