Figure 2: Contracting as a Percentage of the Existing Fleet in DWT
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
in Number
Source: Bureau Veritas, Clarksons
RETROFITS AS A BRIDGE Retrofits are being deployed to extend competitiveness. Wind-assisted propulsion, energy-saving devices and hull optimisation can improve efficiency with relatively short paybacks. Such measures buy time, but they cannot replace the need for new tonnage. More capital-intensive technologies, such as fuel conversions or carbon capture, are limited to younger ships. The fundamental challenge of slow renewal therefore remains.
FINANCE AS A FILTER In that context, financing is becoming one of the decisive forces shaping renewal. Initiatives such as the Poseidon Principles have linked lending frameworks to decarbonisation objectives, steering capital toward projects that support transition. Owners with credible strategies and charter support can still secure competitive terms, but smaller operators often face higher costs or limited access.
This selective allocation of finance is delaying investment decisions. Renewal that might have otherwise been spread across the decade risks being compressed into a narrower window, amplifying the potential for a supply squeeze later on. For traders, this means less flexibility in fleet growth and greater likelihood of higher transportation costs.
IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMODITY TRADERS For the trading community, the state of the fleet is more than an industry issue. It directly affects the cost and reliability of transport. Three implications stand out.
First, premiums for compliant tonnage are widening. Younger ships with proven efficiency will command higher rates, particularly in regulated trades. Second, carbon costs are becoming an unavoidable component of freight, ensuring that delivered costs remain firm even if spot rates soften. Third, with renewal lagging, the market’s elasticity
Figure 3: Commodity Mix – Volume Share of Completed Voyages in 2024 All Dry Bulk Capesize Pana/Kamsarmax Supra/Ulramax Handysize 0% Source: MB Shipbrokers 15 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2025 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Iron Ore Coal
Agricultural goods Alumina/Bauxite Fertilizers
Steel Products Minerals Minor Ores
Unknown & Parcels Construction Biomass
Semi-Processed Wood Products
As a leading classification society, Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore supports owners and operators in addressing the challenges of renewal and compliance. Through its Future Shipping Team, BV brings expertise in regulation, technology and finance to help evaluate pathways — from retrofits to new fuels — and provide assurance in a market where transportation costs are increasingly shaped by efficiency and carbon exposure.
is reduced. Freight rates will react more sharply to demand shocks, creating greater volatility in transport costs. Figure 3.
Dry bulk shipping is experiencing a profitable present, with resilient earnings despite weak economic growth. But slow fleet renewal, tightening regulation and selective finance are reshaping the outlook. Retrofits can help extend competitiveness, but they cannot substitute for new ships.
Unless contracting accelerates, the supply of younger, compliant bulkers will tighten, and freight costs will rise. For commodity traders, the message is clear: today’s markets may look balanced, but beneath the surface the cost of moving dry bulk commodities is already trending upward.
Marc Pauchet E:
marc.pauchet@
bureauveritas.com W:
marine-offshore.bureauveritas.com
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