US CORN PRODUCTION 2025


JUST HOW BIG IS BIG?


Following a rather favourable summer growing season the 2025 US corn crop promises to be one for the record books.


In their Aug-25 report the USDA raised their production forecast 1.037 bil. bu. to 16.742 bil. roughly 750 mil. above expectations and well above the range of analyst’s expectations. The already record yields from July-25 at 181.0 bu. per acre were raised to 188.8 bpa, also above the range of analyst’s expectations. Prior to this year’s August report the largest production and yield increases for the month was in 2016 when production jumped 613 mil. with average yields increasing 7.1 bpa. But probably the most surprising aspect of this year’s August report was the 1.9 mil. increase in harvested acres from what was reported the previous month. A quick look back over the previous 15 years there has never been a year where acres increased from July to August, only decreases. Only 2 years witnessed a decline of at least 1.5 mil., that being the drought year of 2012 and in 2019 when acres fell 1.6 mil. Following the report prices quickly fell back below the $4.00 level while also carving out a fresh contract low. Despite the record production and yield increases, prices managed to quickly recover as markets begin to look forward and ask, 'What’s Next ?'.


4 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2025


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