Within agries, there are some exceptions like coffee and cocoa, with stocks at low levels and no real surplus seen yet. Happy to chat about it—just call us!
When it comes to sugar, we ended 2024/25 (April–March) with a small deficit (around 2 mln m/t), and we may be heading toward a small surplus in 2025/26, perhaps around 2 mln m/t.
Investors, also “called” Specs, have been running short positions in sugar— but not all!
Sugar No. 11 (raws) is where liquidity is greater, and that’s where the shorts are. Specs (excluding Index Funds) had a 6.7 mln m/t (132k lots) net short as of August 26, due to a very large gross short of 12.1 mln m/t (344k lots)—70% of the largest gross short ever. They seem comfortable with their positions— until they’re not!
Sugar No. 5 (refined) has liquidity, but not to the same extent. That said, Specs have a large net long position—one of the highest: +/- 2 mln m/t as of August 26, 2025. The highest net long was in February 2020 at 2.8 mln m/t. Money Managers have the largest gross long (52,490 lots or 2.6 mln m/t), which is why the net long is quite large.
Quite often, traders are long when Specs are short—but of course, not all traders, and not necessarily on their own account. They may be carrying longs/shorts on behalf of producers or consumers.
Sugar No. 11 has been trading sideways, around 16 cts for the past 2½ months. Consumers are taking advantage of setbacks when they show up, securing some cover/pricing, etc. Producers seem less active and are looking for “better” values.
So, one may see that sugar is not a small business—and the stakes are high!
BRAZIL CENTRE-SOUTH (CS) CANE HARVEST Brazil Centre-South (CS) cane harvest has reached 60% of the expected crop (around 590–600 mln m/t), and crushing is still down YoY by 6.6% (25 mln m/t of cane). Despite the sugar mix being up by 3.38% (more juice going to sugar
than ethanol vs. last year), due to 4.50% lower ATR (lower sugar content), sugar production is down 4.67%, or 1.1 mln m/t.
Brazil’s sugar exports as of end-August 2025 may be down 500–600k m/t vs. last year. With lower carry-over and reduced sugar production so far, sugar stocks are down about 2 mln m/t YoY.
Brazil exported 4.3 mln m/t less sugar during November 2024 to March 2025, which helped avoid running out before the new crop began. Now, exports are back to similar levels, but stocks are lower—Brazil is the one keeping the market in check.
We estimate most producers have priced their 2025 volumes, with only 10–15% left to go—mainly in Brazil.
ASSESSING HOW MUCH CANE WILL BE CRUSHED Brazilian millers are still assessing how much cane they’ll be able to crush (cane availability and weather), as well as how ethanol prices perform vs. sugar. Currently, hydrous ethanol is worth around 16 cts, and anhydrous around 17.75 cts (basis 96 pol).
India is expected to net-produce 30–31 mln m/t (after sugar–ethanol diversion), about 5 mln m/t more than last year and 1–2 mln m/t above domestic needs. The harvest typically starts in November. By end-October, India may have less than one month of sugar in stock. So, the market sees potential for 1–2 mln m/t of exports—if the government allows it. These would likely be refined/white sugars.
Thailand may also see a better crop— estimated at 98–105 mln m/t of cane vs. 93 mln m/t last year. With similar CCS (sugar content), Thailand could produce 800k–1.3 mln m/t more, likely destined for export. Given the strength of No. 5 vs. No. 11 (white premium), Thai millers will aim to maximize refined sugar production and exports.
Elsewhere, we expect gains in Russia, losses in the EU and Pakistan, and relatively stable crops in Central America and Mexico—with minor gains in the USA.
So, sugar is moving from a half-empty to a half-full cup. Last year’s deficit didn’t impact supply much—India had
SO, SUGAR IS MOVING FROM A HALF-EMPTY TO A HALF-FULL CUP.
a poor crop but wasn’t exporting much (800k m/t out of a 1 mln m/t quota), and ended up consuming its stocks. Brazil also had a poor crop but started with higher stocks. Those are gone now.
MORE EXPORT POTENTIAL This year, we have a bit more export potential (Thailand and possibly India— mostly whites), but Brazil can’t afford to export more than last year, at least until May next year.
Global sugar consumption isn’t changing much, despite higher GDP and population growth. That’s because GDP growth isn’t evenly distributed, older generations aren’t eating more sugar, and younger generations in many growing nations aren’t financially better off.
Sugar stocks are down in most countries, with few exceptions. The global trading flow—down about 4 mln m/t this year—is unlikely to fall further next year, and may even bounce back.
As we know, sugar is volatile. Prices fluctuate due to global supply and demand. It attracts speculative traders betting on future movements. It’s a global commodity involving multiple countries and markets. It’s seasonal, with production and pricing tied to harvest cycles. It’s also regulated in some countries through policies and tariffs.
Sugar No. 11 (raw sugar) represents around 80% of global sugar trade, and Brazil accounted for 78% of that in 2024 (and 19% of the white sugar trade flow).
At this stage, not much is expected— and not much is happening. Specs are heavily short on No. 11 and long on No. 5 (relative to normal flows), with some risk tied to large upcoming crops and potential political interventions.
Alberto Peixoto E: albertopeixoto@apcommodities. london T: +44(0) 7570 714 981
31 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q3 Edition 2025
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