SUGAR EYES ARE ON BRAZIL AGAIN!
The weather in Brazil this year has improved vs. last year i.e. there is more rain. The rainning season, which tends to start in Sept and go until March was better in 24/25 (from mid September) than 23/24, but the rainfall during Feb/March 25 wasnt great. Brazil CS is getting some rain still, every so often and the Cane on the ground is benefiting from it.
So, the total rainfall is not yet back to normal, but is certainly better. At this stage, the total daily crush is unlikely going to be as high as it was last year, on an average basis.
Brazil Centre-South (CS) with 20% of the estimated Cane crop harvested as of end of May 25 was 11% lower YoY and Sugar production 11% lower also. The amount of Sugar “juice” used to produce Sugar has increased to around 49% so far i.e. 1,77% higher or higher by 3,71%. That’s good, but the Sugar content (ATR) is down 3,71kg or 3% lower, therefore offsetting the higher sugar Mix.
All eyes are on Brazil as it’s share of the World Sugar Trade rose to 56% in 2024 from 50% in 2023, which was already higher than 42% in 2022!
As the Sugar World just ended 24/25 with a small deficif (+/- 2,5 mln m/t) and is heading to a small surplus in 25/26 (+/- 2 mln m/t) and Sugar stocks are lower in most places, what Brazil will produce will be very important.
India has been exporting very little from its own sugar production i.e. this year is less than 1 mln m/t and is struggling to get the price they want so they are holding back. So far they exported less than 600k m/t and for the balance they were aiming to get over US$ 520/530 per m/t. The World market is at US$ 460/470!
The 2025/26 Indian cane crop is expected to be better despite the total acreage may not increase. The Weather seems better and domestic prices are holding, so cane farmers will do their best to produce the most on the areas they have for cane. Is expected the 25/26 sugar production could bounce back up from 26 mln to 30/32 mln m/t and domestic needs are around 29 mln m/t. Despite a very lower carry over of around 3 mln m/t, the Indian Government could allow some 1 to 3 mln m/t exports.
THE REST OF THE WORLD DIDN’T ADD MORE SURPLUS INTO THE EQUATION IN 24/25, WITH VERY FEW EXCEPTIONS LIKE THAILAND, SO THE WORLD HAS TO RELY ON BRAZIL, TO A VERY LARGE DEGREE STILL.
Thailand 24/25 cane crop was better and their export volumes for 2025 is around 1,2 mln m/t higher, which is good. Thailand is expected to have a better cane crop in 25/26 and therefore more sugars to exports. In 2026 we could have an extra 1 mln m/t, but we are talking modest increases all going well.
8 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2025
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