EDITORS NOTE Q2 EDITION
In April of this year, the US CFTC issued a public consultation document on moving to 24- hour, 7 day a week markets, and the potential uses, benefits and risks in derivatives markets.
Globalization, geopolitics, trade tensions, tariffs, shipping, freight rates, currencies, CFTC, trading hours, Sugar, French Fries, liquidity, China, Brazil
Welcome to the Q2 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as the conflict between Iran and Israel is added to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and global trade tensions continue to run high, even though financial market risk appetite appears to remain relatively robust.
In this edition, we take a look at the realities of globalization, the current push back (‘deglobalization’) against it, how much of the populist political agenda can actually be realized, and some of the potential opportunities. The USTR’s measures to try and counter China’s dominance in maritime shipping and shipbuilding are due to come into force in October 2025, there is a detailed look some of the strategies that are being adopted to deal with them, and how these will likely change vessel deployment and freight rates.
Image credit: Jakob Carlsen / Copenhagen Merchants Group (Cover and pages 3/10/11) © 2025 COPYRIGHT ADM INVESTOR SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 02547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. © 2025 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
2 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2025
This is not a genuinely new idea, we consider some of the lessons from prior initiatives, and some of the implications for liquidity, risk management and compliance. The USD’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency and safe haven is once again being questioned, but what are the realities in terms of actual flows, and how are FX reserve managers adjusting and diversifying their portfolios.
Sugar like many other agricultural commodities has had another choppy ride in price terms this year, so what are the supply prospects in key producers such as India, Thailand and above all Brazil, and price outlook implications.
Like many industries in Europe, the market for frozen fries looks to be at a major crossroads, there is an in-depth look at key challenges for industry, and how are market strains likely to play out.
THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE
EDITORS IN CHIEF Eddie Tofpik
E:
eddie.tofpik@
admisi.com Marc Ostwald
E:
marc.ostwald@admisi.com
PRODUCTION & CIRCULATION CREATIVE DESIGN Alfred Michelin
Simrat Kaur Sounthe
MARKETING Alfred Michelin
Simrat Kaur Sounthe
ADM CONTRIBUTORS Eddie Tofpik
Edwin Burgers Marc Ostwald
EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTORS Alberto Peixoto
Mads Frank Markussen Shahil Nathoo
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28
