THE PRICE OF INFLEXIBILITY The current crisis has laid bare the risks of rigid contracting. Belgian processors, traditionally more adept at flexible sourcing, are faring better than their Dutch counterparts. On the other hand it’s also the Belgians that have mainly focussed on bulk export fries, where the Netherlands have been more adapt at adding value – for example aiming at the QSR (Quick Service Restaurants) segment. Those with the agility to respond to market shifts – by trimming volumes or pivoting to higher-value products – are now in a stronger position. Recovering lost ground will depend on offering high quality at competitive prices.
While the volume of exports within Europe remains sizeable, regaining share in the Middle East and Asia will require more than just price adjustments – it will take strategic repositioning. India and China are ramping up fries production, supported by strong investments from North American and European companies, and they are here to stay. In the current market they are competitive – mainly in Asia. They also have the edge when it comes to politically- sensitive countries. This for example explains the rise of Egypt as an upcoming exporter, becoming the foremost supplier of Russia.
REGAINING MARKET SHARE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA DEMANDS STRATEGIC REPOSITIONING, AS INDIA AND CHINA, BACKED BY STRONG INVESTMENTS, ARE HERE TO STAY AND COMPETITIVE— ESPECIALLY IN POLITICALLY- SENSITIVE REGIONS LIKE RUSSIA...
OUTLOOK: PRICE PAIN FOR GROWERS The ripple effects are reaching growers. The last four months of the current market season saw a total lack of demand in free-buy potatoes. Contract prices will come under pressure for the season to come if the export market doesn’t improve. For the coming season, which will start late July in Western Europe, the writing is on the wall. Open-market demand is evaporating and many growers are left with low-value crops and little recourse. The sector's assumption of unending global demand has proven illusory. Flexibility, not scale, may now be the golden rule.
Unless European fries regain price competitiveness or currency trends shift dramatically, the current market strain is likely to persist into the 2025–26 season. For now, the boom in frozen fries has entered a painful correction – one that may reshape the continent’s potato industry for years to come.
Edwin Burgers is the Managing Director at ADM Investor Services B.V. and founder of DCA Market Intelligence in the Netherlands. E:
edwin.burgers@admis.com
19 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2025
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