HOW EUROPE IS LOSING MARKET SHARE TO UPCOMING COUNTRIES Europe’s frozen potato industry, once buoyed by boundless optimism and expanding acreage, is now reckoning with the fallout of overextension and fierce international competition. As export volumes shrink and prices for processing potatoes collapse, processors are coming to terms with a stark new reality: the global fries market is no longer theirs to dominate.
The crisis has its roots in early 2024. Anticipating continued post-pandemic export growth, European processors aggressively expanded contracted acreage for processing potatoes. This was made more complex by a shortage of certified seed potatoes, forcing processors to accept second-tier varieties. The assumption: quantity would trump quality. The growth in processing plants in Belgium and France has meanwhile also been unprecedented. Dutch company Aviko and Belgian fries gigant Clarebout both opened brand-new factories. Numerous other factories have seen upgrades in their capacity and efficiency, bringing processing levels – mainly for deep frozen French fries – to record levels.
Graph 1: Export in tons
EUROPE TAKES A HIT Recent data reveals a 18% decline in EU-27 exports of frozen fries in February 2025 year-on-year, with major destinations like the UK, Middle East, and Asia all showing double-digit drops. Over a period of 12 months the export level is 7% lower. The UK – Europe’s biggest customer – reduced imports by 16%, while exports to Asia fell
37%.The underlying causes are no mystery. European fries are expensive relative to global alternatives, the euro remains unfavourable, and countries like China and India have aggressively undercut the EU in key markets. India, for instance, saw export volumes jump 50% in February, with product sold to the Gulf States at €162 per tonne less than the European average. Export levels to the Middle East from Europe dropped by 35% and those to South America by 12%.
In extreme cases, processors have been forced to offload bulk fries as livestock feed, while export- oriented production now exceeds demand in several regions. This has its impact on the stock position of companies in Europe. Factories are trying to shift more produce in their European home market, which means greater competition and further price pressure.
Graph 2: Value per tons
Belgium
Netherlands Source: DCA Market Intelligence
France
Germany
Poland
Poland
Germany Source: DCA Market Intelligence
France
Netherlands
Belgium
17 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition 2025
ton
€ per ton
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