structures will evolve along different scales and timelines, which by extension will change their identity (and the associated model). This is the principle of ‘Knightian Uncertainty’ as outlined in ‘Risk, Uncertainty Profit’ (Knight, F. H. (1921/2002)): “We do not perceive the present as it is and in its totality, nor do we infer the future from the present with any high degree of dependability, nor yet do we accurately know the consequences of our own actions.” In other words, it is not possible to make a model out of something(s) that does not as yet exist, at best we can merely extrapolate, and then investigate how systems are evolving.
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM In sustainability terms, this implies that while greater efficiency certainly has a part to play, a very systemic examination of what drives consumption patterns is needed, in order to develop government policies which incentivise preserving efficiency gains, break the typical cycle of increased consumption ‘rebound effects’, and discourage resource depletion. If there are lessons from the technological revolution of the past 35 years, one will be to address an elephant in the room, namely the fact that so much technological development has been focussed on ‘convenience’, which obviously has the benefit of ‘mass market’ adoption for the inventor or developer (be that individual or corporate), but all too often has numerous unintended consequences, above all in behavioural terms. All too often, it tends to dull reflexive impulses that are critical for complex adaptive systems to ensure their survival when confronted with unexpected or unknown constraints, which may include but are not limited to, resource availability. Convenience can also engender excessive expectations, whether these relate to what is desirable, or on the other hand unacceptable.
In less theoretical, and more practical terms, it implies the need for better education, promoting much greater awareness about consumption habits, stricter energy standards and indeed carbon pricing, which not only promote
a faster adoption of renewable energy sources, but also change habitual behaviours. It also suggests that ‘Net Zero’ approaches are likely to fall foul of the Jevons Paradox, and may be rather too ‘convenient’, and too limited in ‘goal’ terms. A far more systemic approach that takes into account the need to engender a cultural and political shift about what is desirable in terms of standards of living that are aspired to. This is an enormous challenge, above all politically, given that the temptation to exploit, and thus consume any surpluses in energy brought about by greater efficiency, above all to ostensibly improve living standards has been the effective Zeitgeist of each phase of the various industrial revolutions for hundreds of years.
Marc Ostwald E:
marc.ostwald@admisi.com T: +44(0) 20 7716 8534
17 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2024
WHILE THE ENERGY REQUIRED TO POWER AN LED LIGHT BULB IS AROUND 75% LESS THAN AN INCANDESCENT BULB, LIGHTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION HAS BARELY CHANGED.
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