WHY? WELL, WE DO HAVE TRADE FLOW
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN 2024. India is expected to export close to 5 mln m/t less as the Indian government has suspended exports and what they export (Refined sugars) will be related to Raw Sugar imports.
Thailand is expected to export 2 mln m/t less as the cane crop and sugar content was lower.
Mexico is expected to produce 400/500k m/t less and Central America 300k m/t less, which means what they don’t produce they don’t export.
Total trade flow for 2024 is expected to rise 2 to 3 mln m/t as stocks need to be replaced, to a certain degree and consumption rises, including importing nations!
Brazil ended 2023 with 4,4 mln m/t more in stock than 2022, but January/March 2024 sugar exports are stronger year on year, stronger enough to wipe
out the extra surplus and leave Brazil starting the April 2024 / March 2025 crop with slightly lower stocks than March 2023.
The Centre-South region of Brazil received less rainfall during Oct/Feb 23/24, perhaps as much as 50% in some areas and therefore the total amount of cane expected to be harvested in 2024 is less.
Brazil CS harvested close to 650 mln m/t of cane during April 23/March 24 and estimates for 24/25 are down to 590 to 620 mln m/t. The Sugar content (sugar in the cane) may be similar and the Sugar Mix a touch higher, but the total amount of sugar to be produced is likely to be lower.
Current sugar estimates for Brazil CS 24/25 range from 40 to 42 mln m/t so at best, at this stage, Brazil would be producing around 2 to 3 mln m/t less. Well, what Brazil doesn’t produce Brazil won’t be exporting and the stocks to start with are a touch lower.
India < 5 mln m/t Source: AP Commodities
Potential Sugar Exports for 2024 Thailand
Mexico <2 mln m/t <400/500k m/t <300k m/t
Central America
Brazil
> 4,4 mln m/t (2023 stock)
13 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2024
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