QUID VALEAT HUIUS SACCHARO?


The Sugar market after the big tumble at the end of 2023, is looking for a direction. Of course, many players would be happier with a sideways market than a trending one.


AS THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL


THE TREND BENDS. What happened late November into December 2023 was more than a bend and caused a major challenge to the value of Sugar in the World market and dented market confidence.


The Sugar market after the big tumble at the end of 2023, is looking for a direction. Of course, many players would be happier with a sideways market than a trending one. As “The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends”, what happened late November into December 2023 was more than a bend and caused a major challenge to the value of Sugar in the World market and dented market confidence.


When it comes to Sugar S (Supply) & D (Demand), the surplus for April/March 23/24 was never huge, but we also never saw a deficit. There are plenty stats on production, but no stats on demand. There are stats on exports, but not for all and there are some stats on imports, but not for many.


So, estimating demand is a complex exercise that many players don’t do. They listen, they evaluate and then they trade. Some subscribe to consultants like us (AP Commodities) and some prefer to do their own. Well, in my previous capacity, I used to say that


speed of knowledge is vital, but one has to evaluate whether the flow of information is correct and likely to happen.


Anyway, Sugar prices started 2023 around US cts/ lb 20/21 and after the Dubai Conference in February 2023, many players expected prices to rise, to a certain degree and producers implemented scale up strategies. Consumers tend to be less proactive as they need to deal with their side of the market (demand) and competition.


BUYING TOO MUCH, TOO HIGH OR


TOO LATE IS NOT GOOD, RIGHT? Well, Consumers in 2023 chased the market as they didn’t buy too much nor too high and, in some cases, too late. We “saw” may markets “running” out of sugar, stocks being depleted and demand destroyed. The total amount of sugars that left from A to B (Trade flow) in 2023 shrunk by about 3 mln m/t.


As we look into 2024, with Two months already behind us, we see Sugar prices going sideways. Many believe prices can still rise, but there is caution in place. The Dubai Sugar Conference 2024 last week was “down to earth”, but many believe that we are yet to see a stronger market. Is risk already deployed?


AS THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE TREND BENDS.


12 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2024


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