Freight basis as EUR/PMT from EU to Spain (30.000 mts) vs Handysize Index
j/25
-5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00
f/25 m/25 a/25
Germany to Spain m/25
Constantza to Spain j/25
j/25
Argentina to Spain a/25
USG to Spain s/25
o/25 n/25 d/25
Figure 1: USD/MT basis volatility over time for selected routes – source:
www.cmnavigator.com
The chart at the top of the page shows an example of the 2025 freight price for 30,000 mts of wheat to Spain, expressed in EUR per metric tonne. Both the EU to Spain route and a comparison calculation based on the Baltic Handysize TC Index have been converted into EUR per metric tonne and plotted as a basis, calculated as EU to Spain minus the Baltic Index.
CONCLUSION In grains and oilseeds, the economic purpose of value chains is simple, they move goods from where they are produced to where they are consumed. Prices coordinate that movement, and freight is the cost wedge that links an origin price to a delivered price. A trader buying/selling FOB or CFR trader is not interested in freight for its own sake, the trader is buying the ability to move a cargo at the right time, under the right terms, with acceptable operational risk. The question is therefore not “what is the freight rate”, it is which origin becomes the marginal supplier into a destination once freight, currency, and quality are counted, and which execution choice delivers the best risk adjusted outcome.
For traders the first discipline is to state what “freight price” is being observed. A voyage quote, a time charter hire, a route assessment, an index basket, and an FFA settlement are different economic objects. They can all be informative, but they are not interchangeable.
For practitioners, the remedy is to treat freight pricing as a system rather than a set of snapshots. The system needs a clear price object for each decision, transparent assumptions and conversions, a basis framework so deviations from benchmarks are explained rather than debated, and automation so the same view is shared across desks fast. Volatility will remain, ships cannot be built overnight and transport cannot be stored. The practical opportunity is to stop wasting that volatility through slow workflows, and instead turn it into faster, more consistent execution decisions.
Mads Frank Markussen Head of Freight Research CM Navigator E:
research@navimerchants.com T: +(0045) 31 14 94 57
29 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2026
FOR TRADERS THE FIRST DISCIPLINE IS TO STATE WHAT “FREIGHT PRICE” IS BEING OBSERVED.
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