World Sugar Ending Stocks vs. Stocks/Usage Ratio
World Sugar Ending Stocks vs. Stocks/Usage Ratio
19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55
1995 2000 2005 Most Recent: As Of Dec 2025 World Sugar Usage RatioWorld Sugar Usage
We have already seen evidence of lower crushing for sugar in Brazil. Sugar’s share of the cane crush has averaged 50.7% so far for the 2025/26 marketing year, up from 48% for 2024/25. However, the share has dropped sharply since its peak at 55% during the first half of August 2025. By the second half of January 2026, that percentage had fallen to 6.6%. This has had little practical effect so far, as that nation is at the tail end of its production season and the volumes are not large enough to make much of a difference. Production tends to peak in July-August, and sugar’s share of crush tends to decline into the second half of the season. However, the trend is noticeable. At this point, analysts are calling for sugar’s share to average 48% to 49% in 2026/27.
GLOBAL SUGAR DEMAND
Global sugar demand is close to, if not at, record levels. This has kept the stocks-to-use ratio historically tight despite the global production surplus this year. However, the trajectory of demand growth has leveled off. The industry is concerned that the popularity of GLP-1 weight loss drugs is eating into sugar consumption, particularly in developed countries. As the drugs’ patents expire and cheaper generic versions become available, the lower demand trend could spread into the developing world.
Market conditions do not suggest a massive reversal. But low prices may spark lower production and support demand. Add the extremely oversold condition from the funds and on the charts, and the market could be vulnerable to a short covering rally. Any weather problems that may develop this year could leave the market ready for something more substantial.
Mark Bowman Senior Global Market Analyst, ADM Investor Services E:
mark.bowman@
admis.com
11 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2026
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190
1995 2000 2005 Most Recent: 178.59 As Of Dec 2025 2010 2015 Crop Year Beginning Source: USDA 2020 2025 2010 Ending Stocks 2015 Crop Year Beginning Stocks/Use Source: USDA 2020 2025
15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33%
THE INDUSTRY IS CONCERNED THAT THE POPULARITY OF GLP-1 WEIGHT LOSS DRUGS IS EATING INTO SUGAR CONSUMPTION, PARTICULARLY IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES.
Stocks / Usage Ratio
Million Metric Tons
Ending Stocks - Million Metric Tons
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