QUIET CRISIS IN FARMING! The days of feasting…are over!
This whole article, was prompted by one piece that crossed my desk, the comprehensive…but rather boringly titled ‘2025 Agricultural Lender Survey Results’, a joint survey conducted by the American Bankers Association and the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, commonly called Farmer Mac. In this survey, the key feature that jumped off the pages, were how most of the 450 plus agricultural lenders in the U.S., expected around 52% of farms to remain profitable in 2025…but for 2026, half of all farms would be unprofitable, the lowest share since 2020. Their concerns were credit quality & agricultural loan deterioration with lender competition & interest rate volatility the next overall concerns. To combat this, many lenders expect to tighten underwriting standards and terms for agricultural credit, not an ideal solution in the face of such mounting fears for farmers. However, they do expect agricultural loan application approval rates to climb from 84% to 88%.
93% of lenders expect farm debt to increase in the coming year as tighter working capital and increased use of credit take hold. The key sectors in driving lending worries are Grain & Cotton farms with some 70% indicating they are very worried about Grain profitability, up from only 15% two years ago. The Livestock sector fares better, with much less concern about Beef & Poultry farms in the coming year, despite the emergence of avian diseases, threat of swine flu, New World Screwworm & the heavy decline in U.S. Dairy prices. Interestingly, as income from farming has declined, a greater proportion of income has come from supplemental sources, such as money from leasing to wind, solar, hunting licenses, etc… and also from Government payments. About 53% of lenders noted income from these sources, particularly from the Government. Additionally, USDA projections show Government payments made up more that a quarter of net farm incomes.
Despite these anticipated problems, farmland values in the U.S. rose in 2025 for a 4th straight year, propped up by limited supply & increased entry from private equity firms into farming, the
LOSING THE LAND…THE
…FOR 2026, HALF OF ALL FARMS WOULD BE UNPROFITABLE…
latter being ‘…ill-suited for an industry that already relies on debt and fluctuating inputs and profit margins.’(1)
. However, there is a demographic hit
that will severely affect U.S. farming in the next few years that was identified over two years ago. You see, 58 is the median age of farmers, the oldest workforce in America. You are more likely to meet a farmer over 65 than under 44. Of those over 65, which accounts for some 39% of U.S. farmers(2)
, 40% of the U.S. farmland is owned by
them and as these farmers retire over the next 20 years. Thus, it is expected that around 350 million acres of farmland will change hands(3)
.
Yet in the meantime, farm bankruptcies, what are called Chapter 12 in the U.S., have increased by 46% (4)
and a recent discussion piece on the
current grain farm financial position in a longer- term perspective in Illinois notes that ‘…2024 was the lowest income year since the 1990s.’(5)
.
This phenomenon is not solely confined to the U.S. as those who follow the popular Harry’s Farm YouTube channel will know. Harry Metcalfe owns & runs a mixed farm in the Cotswolds in England and he made a video(6)
on how the costs this
year in Wheat farming not only did not make any money…but ended up costing him.
12 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2026
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