Major Sugar Producers - Annual Production
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0 5
1995 2000 Brazil 2005 India Most Recent: As Of Dec 2025 2010 EU 2015 Crop Year Beginning China
Thailand Source: USDA
still early enough in the season for that forecast to change. There has been no suggestion yet that this event would be a severe one.
Recently the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that India is set to experience a hotter-than-normal summer (March-May) in 2026, with heatwave days expected to exceed the seasonal average. This could leave the nation less prepared for El Niño.
India recently raised its export quota for 2025/26 to 2.0 million metric tons from 1.5 million, but traders are skeptical that their exports will reach that level. The Indian government reported that around 197,000 tons had shipped of January 31 and that there were contracts for an additional 272,000. The recent 1.65 million-ton drop in India’s production forecast could eat into available product for export.
BRAZIL
Brazil is the largest producer in the world, and it looks like it will have its second largest production season on record in 2025/26. As of February 1, Unica, the Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association, estimated Brazil’s cumulative production from the Center-South region (their main production area) at 40.2 million metric tons. Recent forecasts from various sources put the total for the entire season at 40.5-40.8 million. This would be down from the record 42.4 million in 2023/24. Early forecasts for 2026/27 are around 40.5-41.0 million. Brazil’s marketing year officially begins April 1. Analysts expect Brazilian processors to devote more of their crushing activity for ethanol production at the expense of sugar.
Brazil Center South Sugar Production
5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000
0 Period Ending 2020/21 As of 2/1/26 Brazil Center South
42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54%
Brazil Center South Sugar's Share of Crush - Year to Date
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Source: UNICA
Brazil Center South Sugar Production Cumulative for the Marketing Year
2020 2025
Major Sugar Producers - Annual Producton
Period Ending As of 2/1/26 2024/25 2025/26 Source: UNICA
10 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2026
Million Metric Tons
Metric Tons
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