BUSINESS NEWS


Air traffic in Europe was running


at 87% of the 2019 level early this month, three percentage points down on the level forecast by


Eurocontrol in June for September- October. Inset: Eamonn Brennan


Aviation’s full recovery not expected until 2025


Eurocontrol pushes back forecast in light of ‘downside risks’. Ian Taylor reports


European air traffic management body Eurocontrol has revised down its aviation recovery forecast with a return to 2019 levels of traffic now not expected until 2025. The latest forecast updates that


in June when a full recovery by 2024 was expected. Eurocontrol director general


Eamonn Brennan said: “We’ve seen strong demand this summer, but this has been held back both by the capacity of the sector to handle rapid growth and by the impact of the war in Ukraine. We expect to see 49% more


56 20 OCTOBER 2022


flights this year than in 2021 but still 16% fewer than in 2019. “We’re optimistic about traffic


recovering to around 92% of 2019 levels next year. But there are significant downside risks that could affect the recovery.” Eurocontrol forecasts are highly


regarded and generally among the most accurate, with the latest suggesting most airlines will remain cautious on capacity through the current period of inflation and economic uncertainty. The forecast sets out three


scenarios – the most optimistic showing recovery to 2019 levels in 2023 and the most pessimistic a recovery after 2028. However, the ‘baseline’ scenario of recovery by 2025 is deemed most likely. The assumptions behind these


make sobering reading. All three scenarios assume increasing energy prices with a knock-on effect on consumers’ purchasing power, which affects demand for travel. All three


Continued on page 54 travelweekly.co.uk


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PICTURES: Shutterstock/vivooo; Simone E Neumann


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