Continued from page 56


also assume some of the staff shortages this summer “might occur again in 2023”. However, all three also


assume a “full restoration” of long-haul traffic flows in 2023 and “very limited travel restrictions” due to Covid-19. The baseline scenario


assumes weak economic growth “for most European states” next year and continuing high inflation. The lower growth scenario assumes a recession in “a significant number of European states” and a strong reduction in demand due to inflation. The high-growth scenario is based on moderate economic growth in most of Europe next year – a prospect which appears unlikely – and inflation having a limited impact on demand. Eurocontrol notes air traffic


in the year to date reached 82% of 2019 levels by October and was at 87% early in the month. However, this remained below the June forecast of 90% by September-October and 92% by December. It forecasts traffic in 2023 will reach 92% of the 2019 level, rising to 98% in 2024. Yet Eurocontrol warns:


“Uncertainty remains very high, with risks skewed to the downside.” It reports fuel prices have


risen 47% since the beginning of the year and airfares were up 15% on the 2019 level in July and notes: “It is uncertain how airlines will be able to pass on the fuel price spikes to travellers.” Eurocontrol foresees “no


return to ‘normal’ routeing” in Ukrainian and Russian airspace “by the end of the seven-year horizon”.


Delta posts $1.5bn operating profit for summer quarter


Delta Air Lines reported a strong summer performance and an operating profit of $1.5 billion for the three months to September, with revenue 3% up on the same period in 2019. The strong showing came


despite the impact of Hurricane Ian in the final days of September


when cancellations cost Delta $25 million. The US carrier reported revenue


on transatlantic flights was up 12% on 2019. Chief executive Ed Bastian


said: “Delta delivered a strong September quarter with record quarterly revenues and a double- digit operating margin. We expect December quarter revenue growth to accelerate versus 2019 with an operating margin of about 10%.” He added: “We’re ahead of our


plan for the year on profitability [and] working towards full network


restoration by the summer of 2023.” Delta president Glen Hauenstein


forecast revenue in the December quarter would be 5%-9% up on 2019. The carrier repaid $1.8 billion in


debt during the last quarter, taking its debt repayments so far this year above $4 billion. However, the US Travel


Association warned the current level of business travel would not be sustained amid fears of a recession, noting companies “may look for ways to limit investment and travel spending, delaying a full recovery in business travel activity”.


Barclaycard reports upturn in September travel spend


Phil Davies


Card spending on overseas travel remained “significantly up” on last year in September despite the impact of the rising cost of living on consumer demand in other sectors. That is according to the latest


Barclaycard and Barclays Corporate Banking data which showed travel agents saw the largest increase in spending per customer year on year at almost 95% in September, followed by airlines on 60% growth. The Barclays UK Consumer


Spending Report revealed: “Spend on overseas travel continues to be significantly up on last year’s level but overall growth in non-essential spending was only 1% compared to September 2021 and has slowed since July this year [from 8%].” Spending in restaurants dipped


by more than 12% year on year and more than half of consumers polled for the report said they plan to spend more nights at home to save money.


54 20 OCTOBER 2022


Brits spent 95% more on travel last month than in Sept 2021


was down from upturns of 4.7% in August and 7.7% in July. Soaring energy prices saw


consumers spend 48% more on utilities compared with the same period last year, with 65% saying they tried to save energy at home. Barclays reported: “Energy price


increases in October are leading 91% of Brits to feel concerned about rising household bills.” It noted the government


The report noted: “Cost-


conscious consumers cut back on areas including clothing, restaurants and home improvements. [But] spending on overseas travel remained in strong growth compared to last year with travel agents and airlines seeing growth of 94.7% and 60% respectively.” By contrast, “hotels, resorts and


accommodation spend was down 7% versus last year”. Overall consumer card spending rose 1.8% on September last year but


announcement of an energy price cap had failed to address these concerns for the majority, reporting: “Just 31% say the new measures have made them feel more secure about their personal finances.” However, Barclays Corporate


Banking head of hospitality and leisure Mike Saul said: “It is clear consumers still want to enjoy experiences that were curtailed during the pandemic.” The government energy price cap,


originally guaranteed for two years, is now guaranteed only until April.


travelweekly.co.uk


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