business breakfast CONVENTION


The travel Convention MARRAKECH


Travel Weekly Business Breakfast: Industry leaders attend


Jones: The next six months are going to be very difficult


I


t would be “irresponsible” to not be prepared for a downturn in the travel sector, the former UK chief of


Der Touristik warned. Derek Jones told delegates the


industry needs to be realistic as it faces a “difficult two years”. “Given the state of the economy


and the war in Ukraine, it is inconceivable that demand won’t be suppressed overall,” he said. Noting that many travel brands


were reporting to be performing ahead of 2019 levels, Jones added: “There’s a difference between revenue and yield performance. And with so much pressure on the sector, while revenues might be higher, our costs are getting greater. “I think there’s a storm ahead.


The next six months are going to be very difficult for us. Higher fuel bills haven’t landed yet, war in Ukraine


Higher fuel bills


and war in Ukraine escalating – it’s a very difficult time to predict future demand


is escalating and fuel prices will be impacting. I don’t want to be the prophet of doom but things aren’t looking great.” He continued: “You’ve probably


just done a September campaign that collided, sadly, with the death of the Queen. Now all attention is on January and how much money you’re going to commit. But it’s just a very difficult time to predict future demand.” Ben Bouldin, vice-president


EMEA at Royal Caribbean, said there were “a lot of unknowns”, with


mortgage and interest rates going up, that would “impact the family market particularly”. But he noted that the issues were


confined to Europe and the UK especially, while the US economy and value of the dollar were strong. “We need to see how October,


November and December play out but there are headwinds,” he said. “I’m nervous about higher airfares


to the US for our UK guests going on cruises to the Caribbean, but US demand for [cruising in] Europe is really strong.” Zina Bencheikh, managing


director EMEA at Intrepid Travel, said the operator “tends to do better in times of recession” as its products are all packaged. “I anticipate a shift in holiday type


and in destination, but the length of time people are going for is not changing,” she said.


Leaders remain upbeat despite demand uncertainties


Industry leaders shared an upbeat outlook for travel in 2023 despite prevailing headwinds. Barrhead Travel president


Jacqueline Dobson said she was “very optimistic” as a holiday is “the very last commodity a consumer [wants] to let go of”. Ben Bouldin said he was


hopeful because the all-inclusive nature of cruise would appeal to consumers seeking to budget. “We’ve got a great value


proposition in the cruise sector,” he said, but added: “We’re just working out what the booking curve is going to do. “A lot of Europe is still booking late for 2022.


16 20 OCTOBER 2022 “That’s a little unusual. Normally we would be seeing


more booking for 2023 and we would leave 2022 behind for the US to sweep up so we could focus on the next year.” Intrepid Travel’s Zina


Bencheikh said the industry had already survived the Covid crisis and this gave her hope. “Nothing can be worse for


the travel industry than a global pandemic – except maybe nuclear war in Russia,” she said. She added that more


consumers were switching away from “value” destinations and this was having a positive impact on price, with average booking values increasing.


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Panellists and


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Zina Bencheikh


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