BUSINESS NEWS Forum discussed the next steps for the aviation sector last week. Ian Taylor reports
Aviation ‘unlikely to meet UK’s SAF Mandate targets’
The aviation industry is likely to fail to comply with the government’s SAF Mandate, introduced this month, over the next decade. That is according to Dr Chris
Malins, director at low carbon fuels consultancy Cerulogy, who described the UK SAF Mandate as “well structured” but the targets as “challenging”. He said the mandate’s
requirement for 1.2 million tonnes of SAF, or 10% of aviation fuel, by 2030 “implies pretty rapid investment in SAF production and billions in capital expenditure”. Malins noted the UK would need “30-40 commercial-scale facilities
Greg Fearn
DfT expert warns aviation will be second-worst CO2 emitter by 2050
by 2035” and warned: “There is likely to be a compliance shortfall in a number of years up to 2035.” Greg Fearn, senior associate at
law firm Burges Salmon, told the Westminster Forum: “The SAF Mandate gives a clear direction for the next five years, but it allows for reviews [every five years] and the flexibility for reviews more regularly. “What the sector needs is
set policy. So, it’s important the reviews don’t result in wholesale changes that cause uncertainty.”
Airlines cannot cut their carbon emissions to zero by the ‘net zero’ target of 2050 but will be left with significant ‘residual’ emissions requiring offsetting or removal from the atmosphere. That will leave aviation among
the biggest emitters of CO2, second only to farming in the UK, and “pressure will continue to build on the sector”, according to Department for Transport (DfT) deputy director for aviation decarbonisation Joe Delafield. He warned: “Aviation is set
very soon to become the largest transport emitter of CO2 and by 2050 will be the second-largest across the economy.”
Delafield noted the DfT’s net
zero roadmap for aviation estimates “a significant amount” (37%) of aviation emissions will not be removed by 2050 and will need to be “addressed outside aviation”. The department’s roadmap
suggests just 17% of emissions will be addressed through SAF use by 2050 and 27% by the UK and EU emissions trading schemes (ETS) and global Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia),which remains voluntary until 2027. Delafield said ETS and Corsia
“will increase costs, drive down demand and incentivise use of alternative fuels”.
UK to test ‘no-contrails airspace’
The UK could become the first country to set up an airspace ‘living lab’ to test how adjusting the flightpaths of aircraft could avoid the formation of condensation trails (contrails). The effect of contrails, formed
by aircraft emissions in certain atmospheric conditions, is calculated to double the climate impact of flying by trapping heat. Professor Rob Miller, director
of the University of Cambridge Whittle Lab, told the forum: “About half the climate impact [of aviation] is caused by contrails.” One in 20 flights produce
contrails which turn into clouds and trap heat, he said, arguing: “It’s a very powerful effect and, if we could switch it off, we should do it immediately.” Miller noted: “There are a
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lot of uncertainties – scientific, operational and technological.” But he insisted: “We should not delay.” He told the forum: “We propose
to set up a living lab in [UK] airspace, about the size of Scotland, and run a contrail-avoidance scheme.” This would involve
rerouteing aircraft away from contrail-forming areas. It would mean the affected flights burning extra fuel but the amount “would be very small”, said Miller. The research would “probably
need four airspace labs around the world” and the means to monitor the impact of rerouteing aircraft. But Miller argued: “If we set up
airspace living labs and experiment in the next five years, we could reduce the climate impact of aviation by up to 40%.” He insisted the only risk “is of delaying action”.
A trial is planned
to reroute aircraft away from contrail-forming areas
Miller said closing an area of
airspace – an initiative christened ‘Blue Skies’ – is already being discussed by the joint industry and government Jet Zero Taskforce, with an expert group due to meet this month. He suggested a quick go-ahead
would “show leadership” and present “a major opportunity for the UK” in what would be “a low-cost, high-impact” project.
Miller also argued airlines could
reduce emissions by accelerating their fleet replacement and flying slower. He said flying slower, perhaps
adding 15 minutes to the duration of a transatlantic flight, could reduce fuel burn and CO2 emissions significantly, adding: “If we halved the lifetime of aircraft from 30 to 15 years, we could reduce the sector’s fuel burn by 11%-14%.”
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Paul Groom Photography
Shutterstock/Russ Heinl
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