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Airspace closures due to the war in Ukraine are adding to the congestion, on top of problems such as Sunday’s bad weather. Cancellations are the only


way to restore some order. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary noted of rivals: “By cancelling flights they’re putting less pressure on airports. It’s the sensible thing to do.” The reality is the industry


probably did ramp up too quickly, with unexpectedly high demand fuelling belief in a rapid recovery. Will cancellations and delays


continue? Unfortunately, yes, not least because that is the view of the airports, ground handlers and aviation unions. In May, a survey of Europe’s airports found two-thirds expected increased delays, one in six expected increased cancellations and a third forecast delays and cancellations beyond the summer. Airports body ACI Europe


joined the ground handlers’ Airport Services Association to warn of “the impossibility of scaling up staffing to levels required” amid “a downward spiral of low wages and compromised service quality”. Whatever measures are


taken to alleviate the pressure here, problems around Europe will remain. At the same time, the Unite and GMB unions are balloting ground handling staff at Heathrow for strikes, Heathrow is seeking a reduction in operations by airlines at peak times, and the government has ruled out relaxing post-Brexit rules to allow recruitment around the EU. The aviation source warned:


“There is no single fix, nothing that can be pulled out of a hat.”


Air body outlines impact of war on European airspace


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having an impact on air traffic across Europe, with shifts in traffic from east to west and north to south, and traffic likely to remain skewed for the long term. Eurocontrol, the European air


traffic management organisation, assumes Ukrainian and Russian


airspace will remain closed for the next three years in its latest air traffic forecast. The airspace of Ukraine,


Russia, Belarus and Moldova has been closed to EU, UK and most other airlines since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, although Russian airspace remains open to non-Western air traffic. Eurocontrol reported traffic


over parts of the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) was down by half in March and down by 38% over Poland. But traffic was up by 14% over Turkey and by more


Air traffic over Hungary was up by more than 20% in March


than 20% over Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Traffic was also down over


Norway and Denmark, but up over Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, the UK and Ireland.


Eurocontrol revises down 2022 air revival to ‘85%’


Ian Taylor


Eurocontrol has revised down its air traffic forecast for Europe this summer despite the number of daily flights reaching 86% of 2019’s level at the start of June. The European air traffic


management body now forecasts traffic over the course of this year will return to 85% of 2019’s level, down from a previous forecast of 89%. Eurocontrol blamed the impact of


the Omicron variant of Covid-19 at the start of the year for the revision. But it warned rising inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threaten a further deterioration in the outlook, noting: “Uncertainty remains high, with risks skewed to the downside.” The latest forecast predicts traffic


will return to 95% of 2019’s level next year and to close to 100% in 2024. The revision is based on traffic


trends to the end of April and a downward revision in economic growth forecast for the second and third quarters of this year due to the


46 9 JUNE 2022


a bounce-back of business travel, a “limited impact” of staff shortages on airports and airlines and “no impact” from inflation. The ‘baseline’ forecast is also


based on “few travel restrictions” and a “limited impact” of staff shortages and of inflation. A ‘low’ scenario would see a


Eurocontrol


director general Eamonn Brennan


war in Ukraine and high inflation. It assumes no reopening of routes closed by the war in Ukraine by 2024. Eurocontrol calls this its


‘baseline’ scenario and considers it “most likely” but warns: “There are significant risks surrounding the forecast.” A second, ‘high’ scenario forecasts


a return to 2019’s level of traffic next year, based on no return of travel restrictions, restoration of pre-Covid long-haul flows this year,


recovery to 2019 levels delayed until at least 2027. It assumes a reintroduction of travel restrictions, growing environmental constraints, a high impact of staff shortages, the purchasing power of travellers to be “strongly reduced” by inflation and “a permanent drop in propensity to fly”. Eurocontrol favours the baseline


forecast, but identifies inflation and uncertainty triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “key risks”, noting: “A longer period of conflict would translate into a bigger hit to the global economic expansion.” It also notes: “It is uncertain how


airlines will be able to pass the fuel price spikes to travellers in a market recovering from lockdowns.”


travelweekly.co.uk


PICTURE: OECD/Simone M Neumann


PICTURE: Shutterstock/dragunov


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