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Tourism often treats climate adaptation as something we will get to later. But the truth


is simple: adaptation is not future work – it is now work. Climate risk is already reshaping the operating logic of tourism in financial, operational and social ways that are evolving faster than the sector’s strategies. The signs are everywhere. Insurance is


Jeremy Sampson CHIEF EXECUTIVE, THE TRAVEL FOUNDATION


Climate risk is revising the rules whether we get set for it or not


becoming unaffordable or unavailable in the destinations most dependent on tourism. Investors are tightening risk screens and shifting capital away from regions experiencing repeated climate shocks. Seasonal labour is becoming less reliable as earning windows compress and workers move toward steadier destinations where they can actually afford to live. Airlines are also facing growing disruption costs and rising infrastructure pressures as weather becomes more volatile, along with transition requirements that will increase long-term cost pressure on fares. These are not scattered


narrow sense, but stripped of the character, culture and community fabric that make destinations worth visiting in the first place. That is not the tourism I love.


Four priorities There is a turning point here. Climate risk has finally delivered the business case the sector has long claimed it needed to make proper investment in sustainable practices. If tourism wants to remain viable and remain fair, four priorities now stand out: 1. Shared climate risk intelligence: Tourism


“The transition needs shared intelligence,


problems: they are structural signals. Yet much of the sector’s response still resembles a reshuffling exercise, moving visitors around the board while the rules of the game change round by round. Skiing becomes hiking. Summers shift to shoulder seasons. Demand moves north instead of south. These substitutions may delay discomfort, but they are not a strategy: they are surface adjustments while the foundation underneath continues to shift.


investment logic, standards and accountability”


still lacks transparent, sector-wide intelligence that shows where vulnerabilities lie and who is most exposed. Without it, planning is guesswork, and the burden falls hardest on those least able to absorb it. 2. Climate-ready investment that reaches the places that need it most: Destinations need redesigned experiences that reflect new climate realities, restored nature that protects assets and communities, upgraded waterfronts and trails, and preparation for shifting seasons and skills. Without access to finance at scale, only the already advantaged will be able to adapt. 3. A resilient workforce and a strong small-business


backbone: Small businesses and workers have the least capacity to navigate volatility. Yet they are the fabric of destination identity. Supporting them to reskill, diversify and innovate is how we prevent the Amazonification of tourism. 4. Accountability for a fair distribution of


Changing rules In reality, tourism is beginning to look like a favourite card game of mine called Flux, in which not only the moves but the rules and the objectives can change at any point. Changing rules tend to benefit the players with the most resources. Large companies can absorb losses, relocate product, self- insure, or reinvent quickly. Small businesses cannot. The guides, family-run lodges, neighbourhood


cafes, storytellers, food vendors and other independent operators are the beating heart of tourism. They are also the first to fall off the board when the rules of the game shift suddenly. Climate risk exposes this inequity with startling clarity. The result is a tourism landscape that begins to resemble Amazon: efficient, consolidated and resilient in a


18 4 DECEMBER 2025


benefits: Communities must see tourism evolving in ways that support wellbeing and long-term value. Fairness has to be built into the governance of adaptation itself, or the transition will reproduce the same inequalities that already exist. This transition requires collaboration, and


shared intelligence, investment logic, standards and accountability. Without this, we will simply reinforce the vulnerabilities we claim we are addressing. Climate risk is rewriting the rules of tourism


whether we prepare for it or not. The question is, do we adapt proactively or wait until the board has already been cleared?


Read more by our guest columnists: travelweekly.co.uk/comment


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