in overwhelming numbers. The International Energy Agency’s 2025 EV outlook saw the global stock of BEVs at only 3% in 2024.
Meanwhile, efforts to curtail emission reduction to meet the regulatory timeline have often fallen short. Legislation called for EU automakers to reduce average CO2 emissions by 20% by 2025 compared to 2019. Most OEMs did not hit that target, and some incurred penalties in the millions of euros.
Market data suggests that investment in ICE-powered cars may need to be maintained longer than initially anticipated – potentially into the 2030s. That does not mean abandoning electrification, however. While many are scaling back, most automakers are still investing in BEVs and the associated software infrastructure required for the next generation of vehicles. Moreover, China’s aggressive push on electrification will keep pressure on EU OEMs to invest in EVs in order to stay competitive and have a sustainable business.
Just as OEMs have had to rethink their strategies and plan for a range of scenarios, the European Commission has started to show signs of flexibility in its requirements. While staying firm on the total CO2
Nonetheless, European heavy-duty producers remain focused on fully transitioning to zero emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2040, with an interim goal of reaching 50% of new vehicle sales being ZEV by 2030 - a huge leap from 2.3% in a very short time.
Most heavy-duty OEMs managed to achieve sufficient CO2
the efficiency of diesel powertrains. However, regulations call for a much sharper reduction by 2030 – 45% below 2019 levels. Realistically, simply optimising diesel truck emission performance will not be sufficient to meet that goal, which means OEMs will have to sell many more zero-emission vehicles.
Electrification is only part of the answer. A ZEV is defined as one that produces less than 3g CO2
per
tonne-km at the time it is sold. In addition to BEVs, the other technologies that meet that standard are fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and hydrogen combustion engines (H2 ICEs). Virtually every European heavy-duty OEM is investing in hydrogen engine development to some degree. However, the big obstacle to widespread hydrogen adoption is a lack of infrastructure, from lower carbon fuel production (green or blue hydrogen) to distribution to dispensing stations on the road.
fleet sales average tailpipe emission targets, it began allowing averaging in 2025 – meaning that if automakers fall short in the coming year, they will have to make up for it in subsequent years. There is some question, too, as to whether the EU’s 2035 ICE ban will undergo some adjustment. Between global pressures from US tariffs and China’s rapid advancement, combined with the slow uptake of EVs in Europe, the regulators may need to consider some flexibility on that target. Discussions to that end are ongoing.
Heavy-duty: A multi-technology approach The outlook for electrification of heavy-duty vehicles is much the same as for passenger cars: some progress, but still very low penetration. Among the 350,000 new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles registered in the EU in 2024, fully 95% were diesel-powered trucks. Only 2.3% were electrically chargeable trucks. In the bus category, the percentage of electrically chargeable new vehicles, including both EVs and plug-in hybrids, rose to 18.5% – notable growth, but still a minority of the buses entering service.
38 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.188 AUGUST 2025
Meanwhile, OEMs continue to invest heavily in improving diesel engine technology, in line with the recently released Euro 7 standards. This suggests that the near future for heavy-duty vehicles will be “technology open,” with manufacturers working on a variety of solutions to bring down their average emissions and stay on track with the regulators’ timeline.
Implications for lubricant producers and additive companies
While sales of EVs are growing in the passenger car segment, gasoline-powered engines are still the prevalent technology. That means demand for passenger car motor oils (PCMOs) is likely to remain strong for the next five years. Hybrid, plug-in, and range extender technologies – largely seen as the “bridge” between ICEs and full electrification – all factor into the evolution toward carbon neutrality. Lubricant producers and additive suppliers have been working to develop solutions for the specific challenges these technologies pose. Chevron Oronite, for instance, is developing advanced additive
reductions to meet the 2025 target by optimising
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