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(from USD 1082/MT to USD 1764/MT) during the similar timeframe.
On the other side, the latter half of the year saw crude oil as well as base oil values plunging ceaselessly. The data shows a fall of around 28% for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil value during the H2 2022, in line with the crude oil pricing trend; base oil prices tumbled in the range of 25-35 percent in the meantime. European base oil market has been on a downtrend since the mid of the year 2022, where Base Oil I Light SN FOB Antwerp (Belgium) and Base Oil II Light SN FOB Antwerp (Belgium) fell by more than 35% (from USD 1461/MT to USD 948/ MT) and 25% (from USD 1858/MT to USD 1386/MT) respectively during H2 2022.
In Europe, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been rising since the start of 2022. High crude oil values and uncertainties regarding natural gas availability remained the major driving factor for this trend. Statistics show the Belgian CPI kept on escalating throughout this year, rising from 7.59% (January 2022) to 12.27% (October 2022) on an annualised basis. Recently a significant fall in the CPI was observed, settled at 10.63% for November 2022,
showing a 1.64% decline. This ease in inflationary pressure was driven by the soft consumer sentiment and efforts put by the central banks to calm this pressure, eventually leading to an economic slowdown.
The overall market outlook for crude oil and base oil is anticipated to follow a similar path for Q1 2023. Approaching dark clouds of the recession on global economies has already deepened the concerns, while the crude oil price trend in the coming quarter might oscillate in a narrow range owing to the recent price cap on Russian crude oil. After the recent announcement of a price cap on Russian crude oil (at USD 60/barrel), the EU has agreed to cap Natural gas prices at USD 191/MWh in order to protect consumers from another energy crisis. Furthermore, as European Base Oil prices have already reached pre-war levels and the demand fundamentals are expected to remain unchanged till the end of Q1 2023, Base Oil prices in Europe might not fluctuate to a large extent.
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