CHALLENGES TO OVERCOME
The general agreement that eVTOLs will enhance rather than eviscerate helicopter career opportunities leads to a logical question: How soon can the rotorcraft industry get to this wonderful new future?
Some news stories make it appear that eVTOLs are right around the corner. “No, Really, Flying Taxis Are Getting Close to Takeoff,” claimed a Jan. 22 headline on
Bloomberg.com. HAI’s Viola is a bit more temperate in his predictions. “While we’re getting closer to remotely piloted aircraft and ultimately autonomous aircraft, it’s not going to happen as fast as the general media might have us believe,” he said. “Certification of these aircraft will take time, particularly with many manufacturers working on concept aircraft. I’ve seen renderings with different rotor configurations and power sources, and each one will need government certification before they begin flying.”
When certification does occur – as it eventually did with earlier forms of revolutionary air transport such as helicopters – the adoption of eVTOLs will not be immediate. “In the beginning, eVTOL services will be either in the public service sector (medical shuttle) or in a dedicated market for passenger transportation,” Sarihan said. “We expect the demand will grow over time as both the technology matures and the market develops to a sustainable and viable size.”
This being said, eVTOLs still have to work out a few things before they can gain greater usage. The evolving state of eVTOL batteries — namely, their peak power performance and storage capacity versus their payload weight and size — remains a key factor in the practicality and profitability of eVTOLs in commercial service. “A lot depends on what happens to the batteries’ ability to store and provide electricity, along with the eVTOL’s power consumption during flight,” Cherepinsky said.
Right now, storing sufficient power for long-enough flights (especially the heavy demand periods of takeoff and landing) remains a concern for advocates of eVTOL flight. Until battery technology evolves to the point of providing more power from smaller packages, this limits eVTOL flight durations and distances — and limits the demand for pilots to fly them.
On the flip side, any lack of progress in convincing passengers to fly in autonomous aircraft after the FAA and other regulators have signed off on the concept might only boost pilot employment in these aircraft.
“I think you are going to see things like cargo deliveries and search missions start to migrate to smaller, more efficient unmanned vehicles, but it remains to be seen whether our society will accept
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things like autonomous air taxis,” Cherepinsky observed. “I don’t know that you or I are willing to get into an aircraft that’s not flown by anybody. Still, times change. Elevators once had operators in them and people couldn’t imagine riding in elevators without operators manning the controls, but now people ride on autonomously controlled elevators without a second thought.”
For his part, Viola thinks the determining factor for public acceptance of eVTOLs will be price. “Will the average consumer initially be able to afford a ride from the airport to a terminal close to home?” he said. “Or will we have to wait while the economies of scale go to work and make flights in these aircraft available to everyone?”
Whatever happens, Viola is unwavering in his faith that eVTOLs and other advances in rotorcraft flight will boost employment opportunities for pilots, rather than reduce them. “In fact, I think there may be opportunities to retrofit existing helicopters with new eVTOL-based drive systems, extending the lives of the venerable aircraft that brought us to this point,” he said. “Meanwhile, piloted helicopters will not magically disappear within weeks of the first commercial AAM flights. Instead, I expect helicopters to be flying in the skies here for a long time.”
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