By Matt Johnson
BETWEEN HERE AND THERE
It is a familiar scene for me as a DPE: the well-prepared (hopefully, overprepared) applicant has all of their items out on the table and is anxiously ready to begin the practical test; their well-plotted cross-country is stowed away in their EFB, and when that portion of the oral exam begins, they are so proudly ready to show every painstaking detail that they have made in planning their cross-country. They have planned every detail down to the highest obstacle along the route, all of the classes of airspace or special-use airspace that they may transit during their cross-country, and then—BOOM—the discussion about weather comes up. I can’t speak for all of my DPE colleagues across the country, but for me this is particularly where I see a lot of deer in the headlights and hear a lot of word-salads.
Applicants generally look at weather reports from point-to-point or basically airport-to-airport, but sadly, they don’t comprehend how to get that information for the areas between here and there, or said another way, from Point A to Point B. The applicant will describe the weather conditions based on the most recent METAR at the departure point and maybe for an airport with a TAF that is located along the route of the flight. Beyond that, they muddle through some prog. charts and rely on the popular “briefing” products available with the heavy- hitter EFB apps. In reality, in all of those heavy-hitter apps and also on
aviationweather.gov, there is a product that provides much more information than what is found in a basic METAR observation and a TAF. It’s an actual product of the National Weather Service—one that helps “fill in the gaps” between here and there!
The best hidden gem in weather forecast products is the Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). No, I am not talking about the draconian “Area Forecast” that retired in 2018 and was replaced by the Graphical Forecast for Aviation (GFA). The Area Forecast Discussion, also at times known as the “Aviation Forecast Discussion,” is written in plain English and allows forecasters to tell you how they quantified the certainty, or uncertainty, concerning the TAFs they issued. You literally get to read a
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text-based message from the actual meteorologist who writes all of the TAFs that fall into a larger geographic region! This isn’t a new product; it has been around for many years. Back in the day, the AFD was a way for the various forecast offices to collaborate and communicate forecasts with one another via teletype. The NWS Modernization Act in the 1990s restructured the NWS and gave it its current format. NWS staff realized the teletype AFD could be helpful to the general public and, with the rise of the internet, the transition was made.
All 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) across the United States update the Aviation AFD whenever they issue the TAF. That means the AFD should be updated four times a day. AFDs generally consist of two primary sections: a narrative description of forecast information and its reasoning, and they also include a summary of public-, marine-, and fire-weather outlooks/watches/warnings/advisories issued. So, it contains more than just aviation-related weather concerns. The specific “aviation” section is the how-and-why of the product that earns the title of “Aviation Forecast Discussion.”
Here is the key: A WFO covers a much larger area than that of a TAF. Remember, a TAF forecast coverage area is only five statute miles. Forecasting for such a small area is incredibly difficult for meteorologists. TAFs are often referred to as “point forecasts,” and they are just that; you can think of a TAF as a forecast that covers the area the size of a college campus. The AFD, on the other hand, generally discusses all of the reasons various weather conditions are predicted—or currently exist— within that entire area encompassing the specific Weather Forecast Office.
Suffice it to say, the AFD is worth its weight in gold and is my number one go-to as an air medical pilot when I do my initial (and continual) weather briefing(s) at the beginning of, and throughout, my shift. Many things can be listed and described in it that don’t meet the criteria for publication in the TAF. TAFs require a certain degree of probability (PROB30) before something like thunderstorms can be included. The AFD can forewarn us of the potential for meteorological events with uncertain probabilities both in their timing and location. Just maybe, that location may be “between here and there” on your cross-country flight.
Matt Johnson has been an FAA designated pilot examiner for over a decade, conducting exams ranging from Private to ATP and CFI. Additionally, he is a single-pilot IFR air medical captain, Part 135 instructor, and check airman. He can be reached at HelicopterDPE@gmail. com and via Twitter @HelicopterDPE
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