Predictive care
What could the future of care look like with predictive care?
Carrie McDonald, clinical safety officer and clinical lead for Nourish Care, delves into the intricacies of predictive care, highlighting its potential impacts, its significance for the people we support, and the profound implications it carries for the future of care
The emergence of predictive care analytics offers a tantalising glimpse into the future. Predictive care, a novel approach fuelled by data-driven insights and advanced technologies, holds the potential of transforming the landscape of health and social care as we know it. As the social care sector embraces digital
ways of working, the abundance of data that now exists can totally transform the future of the sector for those who receive care and support, and those who provide it. Utilising historical data as well as
known risk factors and truths about certain conditions, behaviours, and incidents, allows healthcare professionals to make more effective and more efficient operational and clinical decisions, predict trends, and potentially prevent future incidents.
Where will predictive care have the biggest impact? There are several areas of social care that will benefit from predictive care. In the NHS, falls cost approximately £2.3 bn per year and health professionals spend around 45,000 hours per year dealing with falls. Not only are falls costly to the NHS, they are also impactful on the lives of the people we support, and their families. The older we are, the longer it can take to recover from a fall, and the effects of a fall can include fractures, mobility impairment, reduced confidence, and even fatalities. With the capabilities of predictive care, care professionals could be able to predict when a fall is most likely to happen and put procedures in place to reduce the risk of a fall happening. Using data analytics and falls management technology, there is some capacity to map this information using historical data but the advancement of predictive care could mean we are able
November 2023
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to achieve this in a more real time scenario than we do currently. A study conducted in NHS hospitals in England reported that 24,674 people developed a pressure Injury between April 2015 and March 2016 . When this study was undertaken, treating pressure sores cost the NHS more than £3.8 m every day. And with so many more people receiving treatment within the NHS, this number is likely to have inflated significantly. In
Predictive care could mean even earlier interventions in healthcare
care services, pressure injuries require intervention from external healthcare teams such as district nurses. Being able to potentially prevent pressures injuries through predictive analytics can free up healthcare professionals. Dehydration is a significant issue in care and hospital settings particularly for older people as is antibiotic reliance and resistance. Being able to predict the chances of dehydration, and then act before this can lead to a UTI followed by antibiotics can have a huge impact on health and social care as a whole. Predictive care may also be helpful in
behavioural incidents. Where certain events can lead up to an incident of distressing behaviour, with predictive care this could
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